|W|P|Stats guy, I have a question. I Silva because he keeps the ball on the ground even if he gives up alot of hits. Here is the question.
If every batter put the ball in play on the ground, how many runs is this likely to produce? Clearly we will have double play chances and force outs galore. Can you help me from a statistical point of view please.
Unknown|W|P|Moss is pissed that you screwed up too. Does Moss have to wait until next Festivus to air the grievance? SBG|W|P|You are always welcome to air your grievances.SBG is a stand up guy. He admits mistakes when they happen.
|W|P|First off, I'm glad the numbers got corrected, and that someone around is actually interested in a factual debate rather than shouting "Batista sucks!"Secondly, I don't understand why you've made it the main point of your post to show that Batista isn't the best right-handed hitter on the team. That's pretty much beside the point, the question ought to be whether or not he's the Twins' current best option at 3B.
The GIDP numbers you use are misleading, because Cuddyer's had fewer opportunities per plate appearance to GIDP than Batista has. Their rates of grounding into a double play when in a double play opportunity, in each of their last MLB season, are 25% are 15% respectively. Factoring this in, Cuddyer will make even more outs, and these outs are more costly than outs with no one on base. Then, factoring in Batista's edge in defense, and I think you have a reasonable case that Batista is at least as good at 3B as Cuddyer. Also, Batista allows you the opportunity to move Cuddyer someplace where he doesn't hurt you as much on defense, and is quite possibly more comfortable on offense.
Finally, and most importantly, the correlations you were using to show that Batista=Rivas are misleading at best. All those stats for how much OBP and SLG "matter" are found by taking correlations of TEAM OBP and TEAM SLG. What this means is that if you had a team of Batista's, they would likely score about as many runs as a team of Rivas'. Thankfully, we don't have a team of either. Saying that those correlations will hold in exactly the same way for individuals as they do for teams is a leap of faith, and one that isn't necessarily very well justified. Each team is comprised of a variety of players, so that even a team with a very high OBP probably has some guys who are low-OBP, high-SLG types, but they still manage to score a lot of runs because the guys at the top of the order get on base a lot, and then the guys who hit for power after them can drive them in. This is fairly typical lineup construction, in fact.
If TR went and added 3 Tony Batista types, then I'd be worried about the team OBP. But as is, the team OBP is going to be higher thanks to the additions of Castillo and White, who will be batting higher in the order and will afford their teammates more RBI opportunities.
SBG|W|P|Thanks, ubelmann. It was your earlier comment that caused me to look into it. frightwig|W|P|Is there any reason to believe that the double play rates by Cuddyer and Batista in each of their last MLB seasons should be virtually constant?People talk about how Cuddyer chokes in the clutch and grounds into too many double plays, like he's always done this; but in 2004, he had 8 GIDP's in 382 PA's and hit .356/.448/.493 with RISP. It seems quite possible, if not totally likely, that his numbers with men on base will rebound next season. And given his age, it is probable that he'll continue to improve across the board if the braintrust will just let him play, while Batista has been in steep decline the last few years and is not likely to change that trend.
Given these factors, in addition to the numbers of recent seasons, I still have not seen a compelling reason why they should move Cuddyer and replace him at 3B with an older, declining player who hasn't been an asset to any team since 2002.
Cuddyer, the scapegoat of last season, was worth 14.2 VORP at 3B in 2005; 14.7 VORP in 2004. Batista in 2004 was worth 10.3 VORP; in 2003, 5.4 VORP. If anyone is ready to give up on Cuddyer, he's entitled to his feelings; but at the same time, it should be very clear to anyone that Tony Batista is even worse.
|W|P|"Is there any reason to believe that the double play rates by Cuddyer and Batista in each of their last MLB seasons should be virtually constant?"This is a good question. I don't think it has anything to do with Cuddyer being a choker, or Batista being clutch. I think it has everything to do with Cuddyer being a groundball hitter and Batista being a flyball pitcher. It's really the same reason we expect that Silva will get more double plays than Santana.
For their careers, Cuddyer's groudball to flyball ratio is 1.36, and last year it was an atrocious 1.80, which certainly isn't anything like progress. Batista's career G/F is 0.75, and it was 0.73 in 2004.
Baseball Prospectus has the numbers for double play opportunities for batters and pitchers. For the last 5 years of each's career, their numbers (GIDP/DP opportunities) are like this:
Cuddyer
2001 - 1/4
2002 - 3/26
2003 - 8/21
2004 - 10/73
2005 - 19/76
Batista
2000 - 19/137
2001 - 2/58
2002 - 15/123
2003 - 21/124
2004 - 20/127
Not surprisingly, Cuddyer's best season with DPs (2004) was also the season he had his lowest G/F ratio 0.93, but considering how much lower that is than his career number, I'd say that's the fluke.
Overall, their 5-year DP rates are 21% for Cuddyer and 13% for Batista. So, maybe 25% is a bit high for Cuddyer, but it's not all that high, and if his G/F of 1.80 in 2005 represents the beginning of a trend as an even more groundball-hitting hitter, 25% is probably closer to what he'll do in 2006.
Cuddyer, scapegoat, VORP, etc...
To be clear, I don't think Cuddyer was "the reason" the Twins didn't win the division last year or anything like that. It was a bump in the road for Cuddyer, but mainly I think the problem is that he's not a third baseman. VORP only measures offensive contributions, and Batista is a better defensive 3B than Cuddyer is. If we're just comparing them offensively, then yes, I'd say Cuddyer is better than Batista, but I think that difference is often overstated. Adding in defense to the equation, which is harder to measure but still very important, I think Batista is basically as good as Cuddyer, maybe a shade worse, but nothing worth wringing our hands about. Move Cuddyer to the outfield, where his defense isn't so atrocious and he seems more comfortable at the plate, and we should get more out of him.
SBG|W|P|I think Batista is basically as good as Cuddyer, maybe a shade worse...I'll accept, for the sake of argument that this is true. If so, then why sign Batista? We don't need basically as good or a shade worse. This was the worst offensive team in the league. We need upgrades. If the Twins go out and find a better 3rd baseman either through free agency or a trade, then I'll drop the whole thing. But, if this is the solution, well, it's about the same or worse. And that will be quite disappointing.
|W|P|"If so, then why sign Batista?"Because two Cuddyers is better than one. I don't think anyone is really convinced that Ford would be a great option as an everyday RF. Cuddyer, however, seemed much more comfortable at the plate while in the outfield, so this makes Cuddyer a lot more valuable if he winds up hitting a lot better and not being the defensive liability he was at third base. Plus, if someone else, like Kubel or Ford, winds up in RF, then Cuddyer becomes the super-utility player, a guy who is a lot better pinch-hitting option than Castro or Punto.
Also, if you look at the current depth chart and assume Batista is the starting 3B, Cuddyer is the primary backup 1B. And given his handedness, he complements Morneau pretty well.
Overall, the thinking is that Cuddyer is more valuable if he's not stuck at 3B, which is his worst defensive position, and I think that's fairly reasonable.
|W|P|This all reads like some sort of "coping with Tony Batista" therapy... and Ubelmann seems to be a capable counselor (although I disagree with the notions that Cuddyer's more comfortable at the plate when playing RF, and that 3B is his worst defensive position).Batista gives us more depth without much commitment, and keeping Cuddyer's position options open does the same for our outfield depth too (although I think we'd be best served giving Batista some real competition in spring training, especially if Ford/Kubel are capable of taking the RF job).
Nick N.|W|P|If so, then why sign Batista? We don't need basically as good or a shade worse. This was the worst offensive team in the league. We need upgrades.The answer to that question is very simple SBG. Because we can't afford to. We are already maxed out in terms of payroll, and if Joe Randa is going to get $4 million a year I don't see how we could afford to sign a player who is going to be any kind of upgrade at third. If we were to trade, we would need the other team to pay most of the guy's salary, and I just don't think many teams are willing to do that.
And while, with all things taken into consideration, Cuddy and Batista might be about even, it is clear that Cuddyer at third base did not work for this team last year, so maybe the things that Batista brings to the table will be more conducive to helping the team win. It's worth a shot.
SBG|W|P|The answer to that question is very simple SBG. Because we can't afford to.This is why I was advocating trading Hunter. He is a fabulous defender and a slightly above average bat in CF (if you look at the majors, and not just the AL). Trading Hunter could have brought value and freed up some money. A drastic move, to be sure. But, it was the only way that I could see for the Twins to upgrade and stay within payroll.
|W|P|Absolutely. The Gophers haven't been this successful in years. No coach will be able to do anything until they get an on-campus stadium anyways. Besides, who are they going to get instead? A no-name unproven coach that will play for a pittance. No thanks. Give me Mason. Nick N.|W|P|I think we should go another direction if there are any decent coaches willing to come here. Mason is a good recruiter and he seems to get the most out of his players, but he is one of the worst on-the-field coaches I've ever seen. I don't think he ever called 2 pass plays in a row all season long. I really think the Gophers might have the best receiving corps in the Big Ten, but they are totally underused.And today's disappointing loss gave us some perfect examples of his inept play-calling. How many times did we run on third down? And who the hell throws a Hail Mary with 40 seconds left?
SBG|W|P|The downside of going with another unproven coach is the risk of returning to the dark ages, that's for sure. But, seventh in the Big TelevEN and a loss in the Music City Bowl? I'm not an alumnus, but I am a football fan. But, I've never seen a Gopher game and this season's performance won't inspire me to go.Our neighbors to the East sucked until they brought in Alvarez. He didn't take them to three Music City bowls, he took them to three Rose Bowls (and won).
Unknown|W|P|[Silence...]A radio caller today wondered why the U should pay this guy, when any coach can go 6-5 with the cupcake schedule that the Gophs have. And why in the world would they give him a raise?
Unknown|W|P|Newsflash! Sid Hartman NEVER hits a nail on the head. Moss doesn't mean to be snide, but Sid always has an agenda and therefore cannot be an accurate reporter. He is completely unobjective. He is the biggest Gopher pimp in the world. He thinks the Gophers football team is going to be in the Rose Bowl every year and that the coach walks on water. He is anti-administration in almost every instance.
|W|P|"...with the cupcake schedule that the Gophs have."Almost all the computer ranking systems have the Gophers in the top 10 in the nation in strength of schedule. Just having to play in the Big Ten practically guarantees a rather difficult schedule. And for the handful of schools that do schedule a difficult non-conference matchup or two, there are a lot more who play teams from the mid-majors.
But Mason hasn't managed to hardly improve the defense at all. If they're going to keep him on, he'd better have an awfully good reason why he will be able to improve the defense when he hasn't been able to
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|"Our neighbors to the East sucked until they brought in Alvarez. He didn't take them to three Music City bowls, he took them to three Rose Bowls (and won)."On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin
Thank you SBG!
|W|P|Bye Glen, we hardly knew ya.Batista is significantly better than any right handed hitter the Twins have, including Rondell White.Wow. Better than Hunter? You are kidding with that, right? Better than Stewart (last year's bad season notwithstanding)? Better than Castillo (I know he's a switch hitter)? Hell, is he better than Cuddyer? I wonder if he's better than Juan Castro, at this point. Let me start with the basics. On offense, the number one objective is to score runs. Sounds simple, doesn't it? Given that premise, who would you rather have, a guy who hits 35 home runs a year or a guy who hits 2 home runs a year. All else being equal, you'd take the guy with 35 home runs, right? Of course. But, the qualifier "all else being equal" is an important qualifier. I think that we can all agree that it does not require a home run to score runs. In fact, most people would agree that a guy who hits 2 home runs a year but gets on base over 40% of the time can be more valuable than a guy who hits 35 home runs a year, but only gets on base 25% of the time. I say most people, because some still do not get that making outs is the enemy of scoring runs (see the comment from Twinkie Town, above). Enter Tony Batista. I looked at his three year splits (actually his numbers are for two years 2003-04, as he was so good that he played in Japan in 2005) and found out that he hit 58 home runs in 1237 at bats and 1320 plate appearances, which is 21.32 at bats/home run, which is 4.69 home runs per 100 at bats. He also hit a combined .238/.271/.424/.695. Michael Cuddyer, over the last three seasons has hit 28 home runs in 863 at bats and 966 plate appearances, which is 30.82 at bats/home run or 3.24 home runs per 100 at bats. He hit a combined .261/.333/.430/.763. In other words, Cuddyer has a better batting average, a better on base percentage, a better slugging percentage and a better OPS. But, Batista will hit one more home run per 100 at bats. And that's enough for some people to proclaim loudly and repeatedly that he is a significant upgrade over Cuddyer. Hogwash. Let's normalize the numbers to 500 plate appearance for each. This is what the lines look like.
| Player | PA | Outs | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | SH | SF | HBP | GDP |
| Cuddyer | 500 | 304 | 447 | 61 | 116 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 47 | 96 | 0.261 | 0.332 | 0.430 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| Batista | 500 | 381 | 469 | 58 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 79 | 20 | 68 | 0.238 | 0.270 | 0.424 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| Player | PA | Outs | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | SH | SF | HBP | GDP |
| Cuddyer | 500 | 304 | 447 | 61 | 116 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 47 | 96 | 0.261 | 0.332 | 0.430 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| Batista | 500 | 381 | 469 | 58 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 79 | 20 | 68 | 0.238 | 0.270 | 0.424 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| Bonds | 500 | 223 | 330 | 102 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 39 | 82 | 160 | 43 | 0.348 | 0.564 | 0.774 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Player | OPS� | GPA |
| Cuddyer | .895 | .257 |
| Batista | .802 | .228 |
| Rivas | .804 | .231 |
| Castro | .772 | .221 |
| Hunter | .914 | .261 |
| White | .954 | .273 |
|W|P|They really are getting their undies in a bunch over there. I think that in some ways it's less Batista-liking than Cuddy-hating. I have a friend, she's hated Cuddy ever since Gardy (unfairly) trotted him out in the ALCS against the Angels. I think that a lot of people can't get over that combined with the fact that he's clearly underperformed.Why people gotta hate?
|W|P|SBG, you didn't really address the RBI difference, other than to say lineup position. I think there might be more to it than that:1) Cuddyer was an EXTREME groundball hitter last year (1.8 GB/FB ratio) and has always been more GB-oriented than Batista (0.75 career ratio). Hence fewer sac flies, and a greater frequency of double plays.
2) Cuddyer strikes out more than Batista (28 times over 500 PA), meaning fewer advanced runners...?
3) Bunched with other singles/sometimes-doubles/sometimes-walk-type hitters (which includes most Twins), perhaps an infusion of more HR (8 more over a season, by your count) is indeed more valuable than a handful of extra walks and a few doubles. Especially when combined with the benefits of points 1 and 2 above.
I like Cuddyer, and I wish he could get another chance at third base, but something was wrong with his 2005 season, even past the first month, I'm afraid. His 2004 was better, so I have hope, but he's getting older and his career high points thus far have been "better-hitting 2B than Luis Rivas" and "better third baseman than Terry Tiffee".
SBG|W|P|Oh, but I did. Batista will give you four more SF over 500 at bats than Cuddyer. Cuddyer will hit into 4 more double plays over 500 at bats. The numbers are there.Since when do fly balls advance runners and ground balls don't? How many fly balls to left and center advance runners? We've documented the four more SFs. How about to third? Or second? Not worth mentioning. Unless Batista, a dead pull hitter, starts hitting a lot of flies to right, well, I won't accept that he advances more runners than Cuddyer.
This post is not to talk about how great Cuddyer is. This post is a response to the ridiculous pimping of Batista. He's the best right handed bat we have? Really? Everyone should welcome this signing? Really? When we have the worst offense in the league, we should applaud this? I'll applaud White and Castillo, but this one is a huge thumbs down. I don't care if his contract isn't guaranteed. It's not about the $.125 million. It's about upgrading the team.
This is no upgrade. At all. We've, in effect, put Castillo at 2B and moved Luis Rivas to 3B.
SBG|W|P|One more thing. Cuddyer strikes out more, but there's no getting around the fact that Batista provides 74 more outs. Since the notion of productive outs has been all but completely debunked, I can't see how it matters that Cuddyer strikes out more. |W|P|If your argument is that Batista is not the best RH bat on the team, you're preaching to the choir.But, "the numbers are there" is hardly definitive proof of your Cuddy comparison. You're averaging two very different seasons by Cuddyer -- which one is going to show up in 2006? Also, you're averaging two different seasons by Batista -- one where he had a career low in XBH output (2003) and one where his power more closely matched his career levels (2004). Which TFB shows up in 2006? And your numbers or estimations seem to be off -- you claim "Batista will hit one more home run per 100 at bats" than Cuddyer, but your 500 PA data shows him with 8 more homers...? If you just compare their most recent ML season, TFB has a prorated edge of roughly 10 fewer GIDP, 10 more HR, 5 more SF, etc.
Plus, you still didn't address Batista's specific benefit to the Twins lineup. Singles and walks don't score runs as easily as home runs, and as we learned last year, it's very difficult to count on guys like Ford and Cuddyer to manufacture virtually all of your runs through that method. I think adding TFB's power to the Twins small-ball game could help us more than other teams.
Again, no one here is "pimping" T-Bat, but I think taking a flier on him is a great move (although I would like to see Cuddy and Batista compete for 3B in the spring, and I think that Cuddy will get lost in RF literally and figuratively, but that has nothing to do with TFB).
SBG|W|P|I rounded on the one per hundred. If you look at the numbers that I posted, Batista will hit 1.45 more home runs per 100 at bats. So, I should have said a little more than one per one hundred.If stating that Batista is the best right-handed hitter on the team isn't pimping, I don't know what is. You yourself don't believe it, and I am not accusing you of pimping him personally, but what about that assertion?
Either you believe that making outs 73% of the time negates his power or you don't. He hits a home run every 4.4% of his plate appearances. He makes an out 73% of the time. I believe that his 74 more outs than Cuddyer outweigh the occasional home run.
The use of three years was an attempt to show what likely might happen. Of course, we don't exactly what will happen, but averaging out over three years shows more regression to the mean. Plus, ESPN provides three year numbers for me to use without a tremendous amount of work. One thing that I didn't point out is that Batista is much older, past his prime, and has been trending down. I didn't add his putrid Japanese numbers, which when converted to MLB equivalents would show further decline.
The fact that the Twins took a flier on him shows that they really don't believe in the sabremetric theories of how runs are created. They don't believe in correlation. They don't believe in OPS, OBP, SLG, Runs Created, EqA or any of these other metrics. By any other metric besides AB/HR, Batista is shown to be inferior to Michael Cuddyer. But, the Twins apparently believe that he'll magically time his home runs for when there are guys on base or something.
|W|P|Twins apparently believe that he'll magically time his home runs for when there are guys on base or somethingThis is exactly what it looks like to me as well. The 'intangibles' of TFB are going to outweigh the quantifiable Cuddyer.
I don't mind the signing if it was meant to give Cuddyer a 'kick in the ass', or to give the Twins a veteran backup infielder. But to give him the starting third base job, really upsets me.
If Batista performs his 0.240/0.280/0.420 line, AND he gets more Plate Appearances than Cuddyer I will join SBG in hunting down Gardenhire...
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|I'm just glad the Brewers didn't sign him |W|P|I meant no one *here* is pimping TFB -- perhaps at Twinkie Town, but for you to refute those claims here is like going on Fox News to bash Democrats..."The fact that the Twins took a flier on him shows that they really don't believe in the sabremetric theories of how runs are created."
Umm... are you confusing the Twins with that poster over at Twinkie Town? I don't think the Twins view Batista as anywhere near their best RH bat --in fact, the comments from TR clearly acknowledge his limitations. TFB came cheap, and he might be able to fill a need on this team, whether off the bench or at third (although we all know Cuddy deserves a shot there too).
And as long as we're all just speculating about stuff, I'm going to remain optimistic about Batista's potential. He may be past his prime, but not past his usefulness:
1) he signed with Japan because he got a ridiculous contract there (2/15 I've seen reported), not necessarily because he had no reasonable offers here
2) it didn't work out in Japan, contractually and statistically, but this could have been due to an inability to adjust to the different style of play and clubhouse culture over there
3) he only just turned 32
I've also heard speculation that he's way out of shape, but he's generally been a healthy guy, and given his skill set (or lack-of-skill set), his physical condition might not matter all that much.
Nick N.|W|P|OK, I guess that I would fall into the lump of "Batista apologists," because I am certainly tired of all the stat-heads bashing the hell out of him. To say he is better than any right-handed hitter on the Twins is clearly assinine. I don't think he's a very good player, but I also don't think he's a bad signing. Neil commented above that people's warmth to the signing is more related to Cuddy-hating than it is to Batista-liking. This is somewhat true, at least in my case. Michael Cuddyer had an absolutely awful season, and I don't think it's even quanitifiable through statistics, unless you want to look at his avg with RISP (.204) or with the bases loaded (.214). Cuddy hit 12 home runs last year, and TEN came with nobody on base. He came up 14 times with the bases loaded last year, and struck out 6 times. He is absolutely horrible under any kind of pressure, and not only does he not put the ball in play and drive in runs, but he usually has terrible at-bats and strikes out or grounds into a double play. Oh, and then there's his terrible defense. He's got a strong arm, but he has no accuracy, and has slow reactions and little range. I'm absolutely sick of watching him at third base. As I've said before, it's not like this team has not given him ample opportunity. He was handed the starting right field job to start the 2003 season, and handed the starting third base job last season, and he couldn't hit well enough to hold on to either of them.
I don't think Batista is that great of a player, but I'm ready to give him a try. SBG, you and Gleeman and several others are so eager to insult the Twins for signing Batista, but I have not heard ANY alternate suggestions. What would you have done? Traded away valuable prospects for Blalock? Signed Randa for 4 million? Handed Cuddyer the job again despite the fact that he has shown essentially no improvement over the course of his entire career? If Batista doesn't work out, he will be removed from the lineup and the Twins will go another direction. 1 million dollars, not that huge of an investment.
But to say that Batista is another Luis Rivas is absurd. Rivas wouldn't have been starting on any other Major League club for the past several years, and he will in all likelihood never reach the Majors again at this point. Batista lasted in the league for 9 seasons, played in an All Star Game, and has 214 career home runs.
|W|P|Ok, maybe Batista is not quite Rivas. But I don't think the comparison is absurd.Here's an itty-bit of stat-headiness: OPS+, which is the version that adjusts for park effects and is normed so that the average player scores 100. Below 100, you are a below-average hitter in OPS terms, above 100, you are above average.
Rivas's last 4 years (working backwards): 68, 82, 80, 86.
Batista's last 4 in the majors (working backwards): 88, 76, 102, 86.
Basically, in three of those 4 years, he was very Rivas-like.
As SBG says, the name of the (offensive) game is to score runs. Batista's negatives offensively outweigh his positives. That makes him different from Rivas, who had no discernible positives. But it doesn't make him noticeably better.
SBG|W|P|I didn't provide any alternatives??? Other than advocating for months that they be bold and trade Hunter and try to turn him into a decent infielder. Plus, trading Hunter could have freed up more money to go after another decent bat.I applaud the Castillo trade and the White signing, but I thought this team was so bad offensively that they needed to do something drastic. But, the Twins have decided to play it safe.
frightwig|W|P|Until the bitter end, there were fans who believed that Luis Rivas would reward their faith in him, too. What can you say?Twins management painted itself into a corner by already declaring that Cuddyer would not play 3rd base next year, although he did show improvement both offensively and defensively after the first couple months of this past season. TR then found he couldn't sign a Mueller or Randa to a cheap deal, and his budget is maxed because he can't or won't trade Hunter/Stewart/Lohse and he's giving Jacque's money to Castillo. So now he's forced to take a flyer on a garbage player just to fill an artificial "hole" at the hot corner.
Believe it now or later, fans, but the Twins will have a downgrade at 3rd base next spring if Ass-Batista is the regular starter. If TR had signed Jose Valentin to play 3rd base before last season, would *any* Twins fan have applauded? Well, now we have ourselves a lesser Jose Valentin. Thanks, TR.
Nick N.|W|P|It is impossible to know what types of trades Ryan would have been able to pull off and what types of packages Hunter would have garnered, which makes it difficult to speculate about trades that he should have made. The fact is that there are still four months before the season starts and Batista has a non-guaranteed contract. He could be gone two weeks into spring training and all we'd be out is a little severance pay, and then we will all feel stupid for all this bickering.
|W|P|74 outs? Where on earth is that number coming from?1-OBP gives you how many outs/PA a player makes (either you make an out, or you get on base). With a .332 OBP against a .270 OBP, that means Batista is going to make 365 outs compared to Cuddyer's 334, for a difference of 31 outs.
Also, with regards to GIDP, Batista's last year in the league, he had a close to league average rate of GIDP 15% of the time there was a DP opportunity. Last year, Cuddyer had a GIDP rate of 25%, one of the very worst in all of MLB. Working backwards from Cuddyer's 17 GIDP number, that works out to about 68 DP opportunities. Over 68 opportunities, Batista would be hitting into about 6.8 (say 7) fewer DPs. (Also, outs with runners on base are worse than outs with no runners on base, check out the closest expected runs matrix.)
Now, we're down to a 24 out difference, and I think the extra power and better defense make Batista at least comparable to Cuddyer as a 3B at that point. At the worst, this is a lateral move, allowing Cuddyer to pursue employment at a position he's more comfortable at.
amr|W|P|Well, Ron-DL White kindof took Raffi's spot in the lineup. I just figured he's be a cheap, what-the-heck big-bat lark that might pay off (like Bret Boone was and didn't). But then, I still think Raffi was framed. Greek House|W|P|It's just a simple matter of math.raffi-roids=old+crappy+injury prone
And unless Artest gets ejected for the season (25% probability), gets kicked of the team (20% probability) or kills someone (5% probability) we have
artest+wolves=NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BABY!!!
qed
SBG|W|P|I don't vote in my own polls, but I'd vote for Artest in a heartbeat. Andrew|W|P|As the "resident" non-Wolves fan around here, I feel I can advise you who are on Ron Artest. (FYI, I'm originally from Indy and a HUGE Pacers fan.) Artest is the best all-around player for the Pacers in my lifetime. Period. That said, he is not easy on the heart. Worse that watching JC pitch. At least with JC you know the inherited runner is going to score, you can brace your self. You never know what is going to happen with Ron. It can be so very frustrating/nerve-racking waiting for something to go wrong. I can�t really enjoy a Pacers game because I�m just waiting. I guess my point is that you want him on your team, I just don�t know if you want to try to stomach him. |W|P|I hope they do it just for the articles Souhan would write. SBG|W|P|That would be, um, predictable.If they could dump Olowokandi (contracts match, he's expiring) that would be fantastic. I sort of doubt that would happen. However, they might be interested in Hassell, too.
amr|W|P|I would do it, but I also want the Twins to pursue Raffi Palmiero. Maybe T-Hud and Artest could record an album together. |W|P|I probably should know this, but how long-term is Artest's contract? If it's only a year or so, I think you could do it, because Artest might be motivated to behave himself in the short-term. If he has a long-term deal, then I wouldn't do it. SBG|W|P|Artest is under contract through the 2007-08 season. Nick N.|W|P|I'd absolutely do it. I have long felt that Artest is one of the top 5 most valuable players in the NBA. He's unquestionably the best defender - the only guy who can completely shut down any guard in the league - and he provides solid offense as well. The attitude is a problem, yes, but the window is closing on this team and they need a legitimate star to play beside KG and Wally. |W|P|If we could find a way to get Artest in the lineup, then yes, we absolutely should. A starting lineup of Jaric, Sczerbiak, Artest, Garnett, and Griffin would look pretty darn good, even though our bench would look pretty bad (not that it's all that great right now anyway).-tootie
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|If the Wolves don't at least make a good effort to get Artest, they have failed. The Wolves need him to become a contender again. Unknown|W|P|Is it more likely that the Artist known as Artest and THUD would record an album together, or that they develop into a rivalry not seen since Notorious BIG and Tupac??Sh-sh-shut 'em down!
|W|P|Well that's just great. Way to brighten my day, Sunshine.:)
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|I think the inevitable trade talk is going to surface again after the season, and I don't think KG is going to do much to squash it. SBG|W|P|More perspective. In just over five years, KG will be 35. At the end of the 2010-11 season (KG turns 35 in May 2011), at his current pace, he will have played just shy of 50,000 minutes. That will put him fourth all-time, behind Kareem's 57,446, Karl Malone's 54,852 and Elvin Hayes' 50,000. It will be more than another prep-to-pros superstar, Moses Malone, who logged 49,444 total (ABA and NBA).Amazingly, K. Malone played pretty consistently all the way through his thirties, although there were dropoffs in his numbers after age 34.
Kareem never logged 3000 minutes after the age of 32. Kareem played big minutes early in his career, but even still, he had just 26,349 minutes through his 29 year old season. KG will be at over 32,000.
Moses Malone never played over 3000 minutes after the age of 26. By the time he was 36, he was absolutely done. After that, he played less than 900 minutes over three more seasons and never started another game. He had a serious drop off after the age of 34.
The Zoner|W|P|I've heard some KG trade rumors and I think the Bulls would be compatible for the Wolves in a trade. We'll take KG! SBG|W|P|Zoner --Not on your life.
|W|P|There's bound to be a decline, but I forsee it being a more Karl Malone-like decline which isn't really that bad. And I say he has this year and next as a truly elite, game-changing, dominant force. After that, he'll have his days but he won't be able to will the team to victory every single day.
1. Torii Hunter breaks his ankle and is lost for the season.
For all my complaining about Hunter, I believe that he still is a very good player and a joy to watch play centerfield. On July 29, the Twins centerfielder broke his ankle chasing a fly ball off the bat of David Ortiz. And Twins Nation came to the full realization that 2005 was a lost season.
There you have it. The top ten most memorable moments (in my opinion) for the Twins in 2005.|W|P|113577956258384922|W|P|Top 10 Twins Moments of 2005|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com Greek House|W|P|Have we already forgotten about Boo-oone? SBG|W|P|Was that memorable? The answer: I did forget about him. amr|W|P|Against the KC Royals: 45 Hits, 0 Runs (27 LOB). Denny Hocking gets the 9th-inning walk-off hit for the KCR. SBG|W|P|Silva's 79 pitch effort was mentioned to me as well. Yeah, that KC game was disgusting. |W|P|Obviously for something to be memorable requires that you have a memory of it. For me, I watched the Freddy v. Johan game and holy cow. That was some good baseball. Definitely tops for me. Let's hope the 2006 memories are a little better though. Comedy Club|W|P|Stuff like that makes you think that it probably was the meds SBG|W|P|Of course, one can never really say objectively whether or not his statement is true.If he is suffering from depression, an act like this is not surprising, I don't think. He obviously needs help.
|W|P|All of which makes you think of how many similarly situated people that did not pitch in the major leagues are arrested each day but don't get the help they need. The way the criminal justice system treats those with mental problems is, by and large, an abomination. Nick N.|W|P|I actually wouldn't blame this loss on Brad Johnson or the Vikings defense. I blame it on Mike Tice, and on one particular decision that totally epitomizes his ridiculous failures as an on-the-field coach. With 8:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Vikings were down by 4. A third-down pass from Johnson to Wiggins had just come up a yard short. On 4th and 1 from the Ravens 38, Tice decided to punt, despite the fact that the Vikes' defense had given no indication that it was going to be able to stop the attack of the suddenly live-armed Boller. This ultra-conservative move absolutely killed the Vikings. Not only did the Ravens easily make up the entire distance that Kluwe punted, they drove all the way down the field and ate six minutes off the clock, finishing by booting a field goal to go up by a TD.
I realize this offense isn't great, but they can get ONE YARD. I thought it was a pretty easy decision to go for, because even if they failed Baltimore would not have had great field position. Tice is a terrible coach, and he needs to go.
|W|P|Yes, thw Vikings launched TMQ's famous Preposterous (or Brawk-Brawk-BRAWWWWKK) Punt, a sissy punt on 4th down inside opponent's territory. They also needed to be stopped before they blitzed again.-tootie
frightwig|W|P|Considering that the Vikings led for most of the 1st half,still held a 17-10 lead until 10:36 of the 3rd quarter, and led 20-17 going into the 4th, I am surprised that they didn't run the ball more often. I know, Baltimore has a tough defense; Bennett, Taylor, and Fason combined for -7 yards on 4 carries. But Moore averaged 4.9 yards per carry, including a 22-yard run. Given the scores throughout the first 3 quarters, shouldn't you give Moore more than just 10 carries if only to eat up some clock and give your defense a rest? That's fundamental "smash mouth" football, the way Tice likes it, isn't it?
SBG|W|P|I absolutely don't blame it on Johnson. I thought he played a very good game.The point on the fourth and short is a good one.
But, I can't help but think that the defense lost it. They got totally destroyed by Baltimore, specifically, Kyle Boller. The Ravens did commit to the run and they tore huge chunks of time off the clock. But the Vikings D snuffed the run for the most part. They just couldn't stop Boller and their receivers on 3rd and long. Boller absolutely killed the Vikings. Destroyed them.
fw makes a good point. Moore was their best offensive option. True, 22 yards of his rushing total came on one play in the first drive of the game. But, they should have still given him the ball more.
Frankly, I'm glad that the Vikings lost and hope they lose again next weekend. I don't want Zygi to have a false hope on Tice. He has to go.
Given the last two losses, I'll bet Zygi wishes that he'd have ordered a suspension of McKinney and Smoot. He could have had that over, gotten the attention of his team and put it behind him. Some people (like me) saw that the Vikings weren't going to make it. It would have made a great statement. That opportunity is now lost.
Greek House|W|P|I was furious with Tice when he didn't go for it on 4th and 1. Then, I realized that it meant the Vikings would miss the playoffs and it would effectively end Tice's tenure with the team, so that made me feel better.The decision is so idiotic it's beyond comprehension, yet it's the kind of poor decision that NFL coaches routinely make. Giving up 20 yards in field position is nothing there compared to the possibility that you hang onto the ball and possibly score. The best case scenario there (barring a turnover) is that you get the ball back with worse field position and less time on the clock.
For those of you are curious, there was a research paper written about this a while ago. There is a fair amount of complicated math in the paper, but if you read the introduction, you can get the gist of the paper.
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf
Basically, this paper shows that NFL coaches overvalue field position by a lot and undervalue posession of the ball. Teams should be going for it in far more situations than 4th and short on the opponents end of the field.
I'm not sure why NFL coaches don't learn these things. It seems as though most of them aren't qualified enough to understand these decisions and make them correctly. What the Vikings really need is some sort of "math" coach, who will study these types of decisions and make sure that the Vikings don't make these kind of boneheaded game-time decisions.
|W|P|Finally, we can be done with this boat wreck of a football season and get back to the Hot Stove. I've been thinking about RonDL, specifically in comparison with Chili Davis.
Chili was 31 when he came to the Twinkies in 1991, coming off a so-so season with the Angels (4.95 Runs Created/27; 265BA/357OBP/398SLG and 114 OPS+). 1990 was the bottom of an offensive trough in the AL (three straight seasons in which league-average OPS was under 710). But still, not exactly stellar numbers.
Then Chili reheated in the Hump.
1991: 7.00 RC/27, 277/385/507 and 141
1992: 6.02 RC/27, 288/386/439 and 129
He was even better back in Anaheim for 1994 and 1995.
RonDL is older than Chili was when he arrived, but not so dissimilar. Career comparisons:
player RC/27 BA/OBP/SLG OPS+
RDL 5.67 289/343/472 111
Chili 5.72 274/360/451 121
Yes, those career numbers for Chili are through age 39, but he didn't exactly fall off a cliff after age 33. 4 of his top 5 career years in RC/27 were ages 34-37.
I for one would be thrilled if RonDL could pull off a reasonable Chili impersonation for the next two seasons. The numbers suggest he is quite capable of doing that.
SBG|W|P|brianSI've thought of Chili, too. I definitely like the RonDL signing.
|W|P|I don't always agree with TMQ, but I definitely wrote "Game Over" when that punt on fourth and one flew. Ick. And the blitz on EVERY third down? Figure it out, dammit!I actually think Tice is a decent mediocre coach. He can get good performance out of an OK line-up, but given a lot of talent - he'll still only get good performance. Never great. Doesn't a team that is so completely streaky point to the coach? It seems so obvious?
Nick N.|W|P|I wouldn't say they were putting up "good performances" the first seven weeks of the season. In fact, I think they had very few good performances all season. Many of their wins were extremely unimpressive. Beating the lowly Packers by a last-second field goal is hardly a commendable accomplishment. |W|P|And the same to you and yours SBG. I've enjoyed reading and look forward to seeing what you have to say in 2006. |W|P|Happy What's-It to you and yours as well. Keep on writin', man.(Wouldn't "Happy Holidays" be possibly insulting to an atheist? Holy-Days.)
|W|P|Merry Christmas, SBG. We may not always agree, but I always enjoy reading your writing. Have a wonderful new year. SBG|W|P|jeff a --It wouldn't be fun if everyone agreed all the time. Keep reading and don't be afraid to let me know when I'm full of it! Hope your Christmas was a good one.
SBG
|W|P|No offense, but I'm assuming (hoping?) this spells an end to Four Hoarseemen? SBG|W|P|I'll not be posting there anymore.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|I am pissed that the Packers suck this year.I am pissed that Alvarez is retiring from the Badger football program.
I am pissed that the Packers suck this year. (Yes, I'm doubly pissed about that one)
Otherwise, all is good in the land of Cheese. Brewers are good again, and the Bucks are back.
Comedy Club|W|P|I'm pissed that I am whipping your butt and in first place in the SethSpeaks football pick'em contest. Wait...no I'm not! |W|P|I'm pissed that someone decided to steal my fiance's car (and additionally pissed that now that it's found it may not be totalled).I'm pissed that Eddie Griffen shoots so many 3s.
I'm pissed that I decided to come into work today.
I'm pissed that I didn't pay more attention in Evidence this semester.
SBG|W|P|I'm pissed that TJ is whipping my butt in that stupid contest. But I will say that I've tied for first place three consecutive weeks.I'm pissed that I haven't linked to CC's great series on Larry Legend. Sorry, CC!
Nick N.|W|P|It's another Festivus miracle!!I'm right with you on the Jaric trade SBG... it seems to me like they should've been sending us the first-round pick. I seriously think Kevin McHale might be mildly retarded. How could anyone think Jaric is a better PG than Cassell? Despite being bogged down by injuries and a cranky attitude last year, Cassell was the sole reason we made the conference finals 2 years ago and look at what he's doing for the Clippers now. Jaric is a nice player, but he is a bonehead.
As for my grievances...
I'm pissed that the Wild, despite being one of the most profittable teams in the NHL, refuse to sign an offensive star and continually hang their great goalies out to dry.
I'm pissed that Garnett keeps disappearing in the the fourth quarter of games.
I'm pissed that people were, and some still are, saying that Mike Tice should gain Coach of the Year consideration because his team pieced together a winning streak against several of the worst teams in the NFL.
And finally, I'm pissed that Grant Balfour could never stay healthy and forced the Twins to finally cut ties. He had the potential to be a nasty reliever, but his arm gives him so much trouble that I don't know if he will ever be a Major League pitcher.
Greek House|W|P|In some defense of the Jaric trade. Cassell had to be traded and every team in the league new that. In addition, he's old and probably won't be in the league for much longer. The combination of these two things gave him little market value. Could we have done better? Probably. But not much better.
SBG|W|P|Look at the woman in the mirror in that Damon picture. WTF is she doing??? Unknown|W|P|Moss is NOT pissed that Moss is no longer around to give SBG grief. Moss is pissed at SBG's employer.
Moss is pissed that the Twins signed Tony Batista.
Moss is pissed that the Twins haven't traded Torii "Two-eye" Hunter.
Moss is pissed that the Gardentool is still in the dugout.
Moss is pissed that McHale still has a job with the T-pups.
|W|P|What a great blog entry. Thank you for sharing such a painful memory filled with so many rich lessons. |W|P|Tragic story...fabulous entry.Hopefully, it will remind us all to kick the shit out of the Cody in our life.
Merry Christmas All!
Dicta
|W|P|Wow, what a story. Thank you for sharing this story with us. Greek House|W|P|That's truly a sad story. I hope though, that you don't beat yourself up too much about it. It was--after all--his life and his decisions. You said yourself that everyone at the party begged him not to drive home, but he did it anyway. So there's no guarantee that he would have listened to you either.
Five years ago, I got my heart broken. I always think back to things I could have done that might have saved the relationship. But when I'm able to step back and look at it rationally, I realize that I could have done everything right and it still might have ended in basically the same way.
The point is--sometimes it's easier to assume the responsibility ourselves rather than realizing that we might not have had has much control over the situation as we thought. It's a tragedy what happened to your friend, but what happened to him was not your fault.
SBG|W|P|That's true, ultimately he had to take responsibility for his own actions. He paid the ultimate price for his bad judgment. Had I been there, I could probably have talked him into staying put, but I wasn't responsible for him, he was an adult.What eats at me about it is that I was really concerned about it (the drunken driving) and I never said anything. I was definitely cognizant of the fact that he was acting recklessly. I should have said something. That's the message I'm sending out. Take action when you see it. If you are doing it, stop it.
Unknown|W|P|Hey SBG, thanks for sharing. As you know, Moss lost a little sister to a drunk driver about 14 years ago. Moss doesn't recall you sharing this story before. Thanks.White has an exceptionally quick bat. He murders fastballs on the inner half of the strike zone, and he jumps at mediocre fastballs that cross the heart of the plate. He also has good power. If he gets a pitch where he likes it, White is capable of driving the ball a long way. Although a better fastball hitter than offspeed hitter, he still is the consummate professional at the plate.I like this signing. How many Twins can you say, "Now that's a consummate professional at the plate." It's a short list. He is a powerful right handed bat and he doesn't have the embarassing right/left split that guys like Jones or LeCroy have. Over the last three years, he's hit .302/.360/.464/.824 vs. lefties and .284/.334/.481/.815 vs. righties. Professional hitter. Of course, there's a catch.
White hit .313 with 12 homers and 53 RBI in 97 games for the Tigers last season, but the outfielder missed most of the year with shoulder ailments. White was on the DL eight times from 1996-2001 and didn't play much during the final two months in 2004 because of a hip injury.Also this:
Although he was used extensively in left field last season, on a good team White is strictly a designated hitter. His throwing arm probably is the weakest of any major league outfielder in recent memory. Opposing teams run on his arm at will. He lacks range, especially on balls hit directly over his head. His eight assists over the past two seasons are offset by eight errors.That's why he came as cheaply as he did, and that's why he has an incentive that includes 400 plate appearances. It should be clear to Twins fans that the Twins will not sign a blue chip free agent, ever. There will always be risks. But, if he can play 140 games at DH, this lineup will be better. It is a risk, but a better one than Tony Batista.|W|P|113527944195679290|W|P|Rondell White|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
|W|P|If he's healthy a great pick-up - but, I see this as another sign of TRyan's self-fulfilling and perhaps arrogant approach.He is the grand wizard able to leap tall buildings in a single bound and to pick diamonds out of the scrap heap of MLB players.
It's as if they fee their only obligation is to be scrappy and "competitive". Maybe that explains the seemingly endless surplus of "scrappy", light hitting utility infielders.
The DL numbers alone signify that it won't be if he's on the DL - but when. My guess: probably when they need him most or when the Indians and White Sox are looking at the Twinkies in the rear view mirror.
|W|P|Imagine an outfield with Stewart and White at the corners. Let's hope the Twins can keep at least 1 of them off the field at all times. So this is what the lineup should look like on opening day...LF Stewart
2B Castillo
C Mauer
DH White
1B Morneau
CF Hunter
3B Batista
RF Cuddyer/Ford
SS Barlett
This isn't an awe inspiring lineup, but it will be a solid lineup if Morneau performs. I would assume Kubel will start the season in AAA. Hopefully Cuddyer moves to 3B when Batista stinks it up.
Greek House|W|P|Time to get him on the roids! It's good for what ails ya!
|W|P|Priceless SBG! I too make an annual point of giving to the Human Fund for all my Christmas gift-giving needs (although I like the originality of your card).A donation to the Human Fund makes the perfect Festivus gift, which, by the way, is tomorrow (December 23)! Happy Festivus, everyone! Make sure to display your aluminum poles!
[Hoping someone else gets the reference.]
Greek House|W|P|I agree with what you said. Sometimes, it seems as though some professional atheletes forget about this. They get so wrapped up in their own little world that they start to think that the public owes them their money and their interest. They forget that without people to watch the games, most of them would be flipping burgers for $6/hour. When athletes (and coaches) forget about this, you get comments like this and like Sprewell's "feeding his family" comments.This is yet another way that KG seperates himself from the pack. He gets the big money and he feels the obligation to do everything he can for the team.
SBG|W|P|I like players' leagues. The NBA and MLB are about the players. The NFL is most definitely not about the players. |W|P|Communist? That's pretty funny considering the NFL is as much about socialism than any other sport.You have to admit they have quite a gig going. They barely have to sell the product, the media and fans do it for them.
Blackmail for new stadiums? It does'nt matter. Seat licences? Does'nt matter.
Charging full price for EXHIBITION games? Does'nt matter. Allowing about 10% percent of the seating for the Super Bowl to go to fans and 90% to corporations? Does'nt matter.
The gravy train has built up so much steam that they can arrogantly tell fans "If you don't like it, there's millions of people waiting to take your place."
The NFL can be an exciting product, but it has it's warts like any other sport and I, too, get annoyed with the teflon treatment the sport gets.
The Twins decided to keep their three arbitration-eligible players -- Kyle Lohse, Nick Punto and Cuddyer -- even though each is in line for a hefty raise.Punto is the definition of a replacement level player. In fact, he's not even that good. With an equivalent average of .235 (league average is .260) and a BRAR of -3, (that means he provided 3 fewer runs than a replacement level player at his positions given his at bats), somebody, anybody else would be better, especially considering that he's gonna get more money. But, no. We get to curse out the manager for another year because he's playing this minor leaguer. This year, I'll be cursing out the GM, too.|W|P|113518635155754957|W|P|Ugh.|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
|W|P|This just exposes my ignorance about the arbitration process, but how is Punto in line for a hefty raise when his performance suggests that he's worth less than replacement-level, which presumably can be got for minimum??does the collective bargaining agreement specify a minimum raise? does his accumulated seniority imply a minimum raise? or is this a claim about his "market value" as determined via binding arbitration?
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|Cute little Nicky Punto is back? At least Bat-Girl is happy. |W|P|I've been discussing this with a Cubbies fan friend. He passed this along (snicker, snicker):From the SunTimes, about the Cubs signing Jones:
The Cubs hired manager Dusty Baker three years ago in part because of the expectation he would be a draw for free agents. Well, chalk one up for Baker.
Yeah, chalk one up for Dusty.
|W|P|The Cubs are now my crackpot guess as the team to win the World Series this year (crackpot guess because I really haven't looked at any real details).You mustn't forget that the two previous curse-breaking teams have had prominent members of the Twins from the early years of the century. The Cubs are just trying to increase their odds.
SBG|W|P|Excellent observation, Beth. I think this might be the Cubs' year.We've tried to make it so simple to give them instruction: 'Look, if you think it's going to help us, show it. If you think it's going to hurt us, don't show it.' That's kind of how we've simplified it to. Maybe you need a football guy running the replay thing. Seriously, I don't know. We've got to look at all of that.If David Stern were the commissioner, Mr. Tice would be fined. Perhaps Tagliabue will fine him for that. But, think of it. The guy showing replays on the Jumbotron can have an effect on the outcome of a game. Mr. Tice is suggesting that in some cities the replay guys are having an effect. I hate the NFL and all so I might be biased. But, doesn't this type of thing bother you? Show plays that help us and don't show plays that hurt us? I'm not bothered that Tice wants the same treatment at home that other teams get (assuming that they get it). But I am bothered by two things. One, that the league would let it happen. Two, that the Vikings coach is dumb enough to talk about it openly. Bothered, but not surprised.|W|P|113510356574693171|W|P|You Have to Love Mike Tice|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
|W|P|Meanwhile when I'm at a Twins' game I can't see a replay of anything within a step-and-a-half. And there's no instant replay rule involved!Makes me want to keep paying for cheap seats...sure...
|W|P|If there's some moron in the booth not playing nice with the Vikes or if the S&M staff can't seem to get the job done, there's nothing like a little public embarrassment to grease the wheels. SBG|W|P|The baseball thing has to do with the union contract with the umpires. That's why you never see close plays. It sucks for sure.My opinion is that it is Tice that should be embarrassed with these comments. As well as the league. The plays on shown on the screen should be uniform, or you have replay guys potentially affecting the outcome of the game. That, in my opinion, undermines the credibility of the league.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|Now it's the Jumbotron's fault the Vikes lost. It's always something with the Vikes.Oh, and don't forget about the part where he bashes the fans for not being supportive enough either. The guy is a moron.
SBG|W|P|The guy is a moron.Touche. What's hilarious is that before the Pittsburgh loss some people in the MSM were touting Tice as a coach of the year candidate.
|W|P|Tice is villified way too much.He's not coach of the year, but he's not nearly as bad or as stupid as some people seem to think he is.
Even if he's fired at the end of the season his career record will be no worse, than for instance, Pete Carroll's record as an NFL coach.
It's a tough job that few are great at.
|W|P|The job of an NFL coach is a tough one these days. It's even tougher when your coach has the attention span of a 6 year old. What Tice is doing focusing on this crap is beyond me. Maybe this in part explains why Tice's teams are so streaky and mistake prone. |W|P|I love the fickle fan base that thinks after a six pack or three they think can do a better job. Greek House|W|P|I'm not gonna say I could do a better job coaching than Tice, because I couldn't. I would have a hard time designing plays, drills, etc. because I've never played organzied football. Also, there's no way I could control the egos on that team. The only thing I could do better would have to do with in-game strategy and time management, which is mostly mathematical.That said, if I were in charge of hiring a head coach, I'm confident I could find somebody who would do a better job.
frightwig|W|P|Any time a coach or manager is criticized, you can always count on some aplogists to jump in with, "But it's a tough job! And it's not like any of you could do any better!" What's that have to do with the issue of whether Tice is actually good at his job?Nobody ever said being the head coach is easy. It's tough, and not many are good at it. That's why the head man gets the big bucks, right?
The difficulties of the position don't excuse poor performance, nor does the rarity of excellent leadership skills preclude fans from expecting excellence from the guy who holds the job. Even idiotic, mediocre fans deserve to demand excellence from their team in exchange for the time and money they invest in to supporting the franchise.
|W|P|Demanding excellence and calling someone a dimwit are two different things. Making a critique on a gross oversimplification of the facts is lousy analysis. Yeah, it's great to 2nd guess the coach. It makes for good fodder at the water cooler and it's the bailiwick of the fan - it doesn't make the analysis any better.
I'd love to heckle these guys at their jobs and post articles in their company newsletters describing what morons they are for the work they do - calling out their lousy credentials and chastising them Monday morning for the poor language they used in the sales letter they wrote on Friday or for their sub par personal time management skills. Maybe I'd bring up the fact they have the attention span of a six year-old.
Tice is not Vince Lombardi but he's not Marty Marty Morningwheg either. That's all I'm trying to say.
If giving the guy a little credit for the job he's done this year, after the lousy start, is being an apologist - I'll proudly wear the moniker. I think many of us (fans) would have been personally crushed by the stress he's endured (some of it self-inflicted to be sure).
Yes, I know full well the team has underachieved this year and yes, he should be fired if they fail to make the playoffs. It's still objectionable to me that fans, even seemingly intelligent ones, lay the blame at his feet for every loss.
The Pittsburgh game is case in point. Tice did not make the boneheaded decisions on the field. Hang that loss squarely on the shoulders of Brad Johnson. That game was winnable. Oh, wait, Johnson's the "great white" hope.
Regardless of the guy's pedigree, you don't rise from a line coach to one of the most coveted jobs in all of sports by being an idiot. Peter Principle aside, I would contest anyone who calls the guy an idiot.
SBG|W|P|So, how would you characterize Mr. Tice's ticket scalping? I would agree that he's not a moron in the classic sense of the word, but when you hear that he's scalping tickets as the head coach, what would you use to describe him?Or how about his Randy Ratio? Or how about when he proclaimed Chicago a tough guy town and tried to run the ball down their throat all day instead of passing and gave that game to the Bears (which cost them a playoff spot)? How would you characterize that? Maybe not moron, certainly not Lombardi. How about not fit to be a head coach in this league?
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|I'll call Mike Tice a moron all day long and don't care what you think, Anonymous. Everyone knows that Tice got the job for one reason, he was cheap and the guy who hired him knew he could push Tice around.
To add to SBG's point, this year Tice said he wanted to be a smash-mouth running team, but what did he do to create this? Did he go and lobby for a RB that could accomplish this? Did he go out and improve the OL to aid in this endeavor? How about a FB that could block, did he get one of those? The answer is no to all of the above.
Comparing Tice to Carroll's NFL stint is laughable. Tice has had a tremendous amount of better talent than Carroll did in New England, and has pissed it away. Tice has a .461 winning percentage currently, Carroll had a .562.
I love it when guys have a 6 pack or three then start defending morons.
|W|P|Scalping: A profoundly stupid act.I probably would have fired him for the embarrassment alone. Under different circumstances he likely would have been fired. You can say this maybe deals with a larger pattern in judgement, but my opinion, which certainly could be wrong, is that this is a wide-spread phenomenon that largely went under the radar. He got ratted out. I see it as more of a personal error in judgement and I don't attach it to whether or not the guy can coach. Once again, I could be wrong.Randy Ratio: Your a stat guy - that one should be fairly obvious. As you lamented the loss of Moss some months ago, I don't really see a lot of fault in trying getting your #1 weapon the ball or trying to get into the psyche of your most taleneted offensive weapon. Isn't this akin to making sure Joe Mauer gets his at-bats or Johan gets his innings?
Chicago: That's an armchair quarterback call. You can argue the merits of both approaches. I frankly don't remember anything other than the "tough guy" sound bite. Can I get back to you on this one?
Again, I think it's perfectly fair game to question whether or not Tice should be a head coach. My personal feeling is that he's not nearly as abysmal as people think and that he does, in fact, have some coaching accumen, despite what Joe Sixpack thinks. I also think, if the Vikings miss the playoffs in '05 he should be fired.
He's done a whole helluva lot better as an NFL than guys who were much more celebrated as coaches - Steve Spurrier comes to mind. I don't want to celebrate his mediocrity - (or then again, maybe I do...) I just don't want to assign all the Vikings' faults to him.
frightwig|W|P|Anon, I contest your premise that "you don't rise from line coach to one of the most coveted jobs in all of sports by being an idiot." Tice wouldn't be the first boob to use his background, connections, and personal charm (or willingness to work cheap) to get an important job he couldn't handle. There are incompetent idiots who get to the top of their fields in any line of work. If one of them can even become President of the United States, I'd say there are bound to be a few idiot head coaches in the NFL, too.
You said yourself that he deserves to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs. So even if he's not personally responsible for every single loss, you're going to hold him ultimately accountable for the team's record on the season. In effect, you are holding him responsible for these last two games of the season, since they seem to be your personal referendum on whether he should get to keep his job. How does that make you so different from anyone else who's already decided Tice needs to go?
frightwig|W|P|Oh, regarding the Randy Ratio: it's one thing to decide that the team generally needs to get the ball to your best receiver several times a game to improve your chances of winning. It's another thing to lock yourself into a codified strategy and then share that information with anyone who can read a newspaper.It's not like giving Johan his innings and Mauer his at-bats. It's more like Johan telling the batter how many change-ups he plans to throw during his at-bat, or Mauer stepping into the box and informing the opposing catcher that he'll be looking for sliders on the outside corner.
|W|P|Boy, according to Mike Tice, bitter Spanky Reusse, and certain bleeding heart fans, the Vikings would be contenders if it were'nt for inept video board operators and bad fans.You gotta love the racket the National Teflon League has.
Commmunities are obligated to build new stadiums, the public is obligated to invest their $80 bucks a game, invest an entire day-or weekend supporting the team-exhibition game or not, in good times and bad, in good weather or bad, cheer when the scoreboard tells you to, boo the other guys, you can boo your own guys-but only if they're white, drink lots of (Purple) Kool-aid and don't say a discouraging word.
Sorry, I forgot where I left my "Good fans handbook" Now, I know I could'nt do a better job coaching than ol' meathead. but I do know this: If your team made a boatload (pun intended) of mistakes in losing to Pittsburgh Sunday, and your main contention seems to be with the video board operators and the fact that there were a few terrible towels in the stands, you are focusing in on the wrong things. Even if this is a calculated move, it's lame and desperate. We all saw how the "We don't get no respect" card worked for them last week.
There is growing proof that mediocrity is the best we're gonna get from this guy. It's not good enough.
SBG|W|P|The thing about the Randy Ratio was that he went on the record as saying that Randy will get the ball 40% of the time. How stupid. He might as well have held a sign up on the sidelines and said, "This play is going to Randy."The Chicago thing was a huge embarassment. He decided that he was going to run and that was it. He basically told the whole world that he intended to do that. He abandoned the passing game and it cost the Vikings dearly.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|OK, I'll bite. Odd that you are thinking about Favre playing for the Vikes, when there is zero chance of that happening as he's said that he won't learn a new offense at this point in his career. Should I mention now how the Brewers will end up with a better record than the Twins, or should I wait until Spring Training at least?
Victor|W|P|I suppose Piazza could have a resurgence, but as SBG said, he will pick a big market team and that ain't the Twins. Frank Thomas will do the same, even if the Twins wanted him, which I doubt.I would actually prefer a DH platoon of Durazo and LeCroy, but TR does not like to use up one roster spot for solely a DH, much less two, so that is unlikely as well.
Although I would be sad to see Hunter traded (in spite of his mouthiness since his injury) I can imagine the Twins improving by doing so and getting a couple of big pieces in return.
SBG|W|P|I'll admit that Fav-re comment was nothing more than a cheap shot, CC. You will have to admit that somebody had to say something after that love fest last night. I only watched about 10 minutes (the last drive that he played in) and I had to turn it off so that I didn't throw up.
|W|P|In my opinion, Favre could be greatly helped learning a new offense. He seems to think he can still throw it anywhere, and he can't, so maybe he should spend his time analyzing reads rather than playing live action Madden football. frightwig|W|P|It's not any real surprise that Nomar signed with the Dodgers; he grew up in SoCal and makes his home there. We'll never know whether a big name who didn't grow up in MN will come to the Twins, until the club makes a serious contract offer to one. Right now, TR can't do it unless he trades Stewart and/or Hunter--and he seems to have no ambition to make those moves. |W|P|Ding, dong, Jaque is gone. To paraphrase the immortal words of 'ol Tricky Dick - "You won't have Jones kick around anymore, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference. Unknown|W|P|How's that half-baked crap tasting? |W|P|With a little tobasco, anything tastes good. SBG|W|P|The joke here is that I hate being asked that particular question (and opposed a broader question like how is everything), so when I hear it my wife and I think of ways to answer it facetiously.The followup to this story is that she and I were laughing about the "ask the pizza" line when we left and I actually left my credit card at the restaurant. I went to use in on Monday and it was not there. Oops! The Green Mill had it for me when I went there Monday night.
|W|P|I know this is really late, by I was incredibly busy over the last week and am just now catching up on my SBG. I must say you've written some excellent pieces lately. Your pizza line reminded me of an old line by Pete Barbutti: "How would you like your eggs cooked?" "Hey, that'd be great!" SBG|W|P|That's a good one, Jeff! frightwig|W|P|I don't begrudge the former Dolphins their excuse to have an annual reunion and break out some champagne. If they did it without any publicity, few would know about it, and who would really care? It's just the media publicity that makes it feel like a dirty ritual. Having to hear about it every year, it gets old... to us. You start to root for someone to knock the '72 Dolphins down to earth, not because they're such a loathsome team, but only so you don't f'ing have to hear about them and their damn champagne toast anymore. That's the effect of living in the age of media overkill.
SBG|W|P|Just once I'd like to hear someone from that team say, "You know what? I hope that [the Colts, or whoever] make it." That is something that you will never hear.Hank Aaron has said that he hopes Bonds breaks his record. Aaron, the holder of sports' greatest record, is gracious and humble. These guys over the years have, in my opinion, been shown to be petty.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|Remember back when Ripkin was going to break the Ironman consecutive games record that Gehrig had and all the old Yankee writers and several players came out and said he should show deference to Gehrig and sit so that the streak would not be broken?Records are made to be broken, the great ones realize that and welcome it.
frightwig|W|P|Ah, but nobody asked for Gehrig's opinion on the matter, did they? ;) SBG|W|P|Certain Yankee fans can't stand anything that might detract from the Yankees. I'd throw them in the same group generally as the '72 Dolphins. frightwig|W|P|Regarding Hank Aaron in particular, I think he must have felt some sense of pride in expecting to see his record passed on to someone he knew personally, the son of Bobby Bonds, a kid who grew up in the baseball family and became the greatest of this generation's black ballplayers. I wonder what he truly thinks now, knowing what he does about Bonds' involvement with BALCO. I wonder if a greater part of him now hopes that Bonds will quit before breaking his record, too. SBG|W|P|Maybe Bonds' alleged involvement with BALCO has tainted Aaron's perception. But, his attitude has not been one of it's my record and I don't want anyone to have it. I think he faced enough adversity when he broke the record to understand that a better attitude is to let it go. Of course, I've not yet asked Mr. Aaron how he feels.I usually tend to agree with you, but you are way off base here. Culpepper has far more talent, no question. Then why are we better off with Brad? Easy: Fewer offensive penalties. Fewer turnovers. That's the difference. That's how we can win a game with only three offensive points. I'd rather go three and out and have to punt then drive down the field just to throw an interception. Or fumble.Before the game, someone on the KFAN pre-game show said this winning streak was the greatest late season surge in franchise history. I wish I could remember who said it, because that is absolutely ridiculous. I remember back in 1998, the Vikings surged like few teams have, ever. In the second half of the season, the Vikings were 8-0, winning games by an average score of 37-19. That included wins over the 11-5 Packers, the 11-5 Jaguars (50-10), and the 10-6 Cowboys. But, no, this team has surged late like none in franchise history. Then, the Vikings played a good team and were dominated, 18-3. In eight quarters as a starter, the Brad Johnson-led Vikings have scored a grand total of six points against the two good teams that they've played. This time, the defense and the special teams didn't provide 21 points and the Vikings got crushed. The thing that just puts the lie to the whole "we're better off with Brad" meme is that Johnson threw two interceptions in the red zone. The Vikings made four trips inside the 20, and were inside the five with a first down twice -- and scored 3 points. The three points came on a four play drive that netted one yard. And just like that, the least impressive six game winning streak in NFL history ended with a thud. The Vikings won a fluke game against the Giants and won five games against teams that are now a combined 20-48 (pending the outcome of Green Bay's game). Against a good team like the Steelers, the Vikings didn't have a chance because they have an offense that can't score against good teams, and that includes a quarterback that, as a starter, makes a heckuva backup. Daunte Culpepper's involvement in the Love Boat scandal is a huge embarassment for the franchise. It's unclear to me whether he'll ever play for the Vikings again, given that situation and the severity of his injury. But, his conduct on the boat aside, there's no way that the Vikings are better off with Brad Johnson as opposed to a healthy Daunte Culpepper. The whole streak gave those who wanted to think so, or who weren't paying attention, the impression that the Vikings were contenders. They aren't. It was only a matter of time before they were exposed. And today, Time, the Avenger exposed them as The Pretenders that they are.|W|P|113495441532575541|W|P|Brass in Pocket|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
frightwig|W|P|Every word you wrote is the truth. The Vikings have rallied to rest on the bubble of playoff contention only by some good luck and a weak schedule. I look for MN to lose a low-scoring game against the top-rated Bears defense, and I'd call the game in Baltimore next week a low-scoring toss-up. Unfortunately, we'll have to hear Vikes fans complain for the next 9 months about how the season would have been totally different if Daunte hadn't buried the team in the first half.... Unknown|W|P|The Queens are having about the worst possible season that they could have. On the one side, they aren't living up to expectations of a division championship and a nice playoff seed. On the other, they are winning just enough games to be on the playoff bubble, which means they'll be on the outside or they'll be one-and-done. And they have played themselves out of a decent draft choice. Furthermore, they are a rather boring team to watch, and Moss' personal level of fan interest is slim. (If Moss' namesake were still here, Moss might be interested in watching them play.)What's worse, some people will be reconsidering whether Tice should be back. The head coach is the same as he was eight weeks ago, it's just that the defense has clearly improved. If he is retained, this team will be in a malaise for a few more years.
Greek House|W|P|The Tice comment is definitely true. He's the worst football coach I've ever seen and has no business being in the NFL. I don't think Brad Johnson is good but I think Culpepper is seriously overrated as well. He's extremely turnover prone and often displays horrible judgement on the field (not to mention off the field).
| TEAM | ORP | oORP | DORP | Rank | Margin | Rank | Difference |
| Milwaukee | 31.4% | 24.7% | 6.7% | 1 | 4.3 | 3 | +2 |
| Utah | 33.6% | 27.2% | 6.4% | 2 | 4.9 | 1 | -1 |
| Cleveland | 31.1% | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 4 | +1 |
| Dallas | 32.1% | 26.8% | 5.3% | 4 | 4.4 | 2 | -2 |
| Orlando | 29.7% | 25.1% | 4.6% | 5 | 3.5 | 7 | +2 |
| New York | 31.7% | 27.5% | 4.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 6 | 0 |
| LA Lakers | 30.7% | 28.3% | 2.4% | 7 | 1.3 | 11 | +4 |
| Atlanta | 32.0% | 30.5% | 1.5% | 8 | 0.1 | 14 | +6 |
| New Jersey | 28.3% | 26.9% | 1.4% | 9 | 1.1 | 12 | +3 |
| San Antonio | 25.7% | 24.7% | 1.0% | 10 | 2.9 | 8 | -2 |
| Denver | 28.4% | 27.7% | 0.7% | 11 | 1 | 13 | +2 |
| NO/Oklahoma City | 26.7% | 26.4% | 0.3% | 12 | -0.2 | 15 | +3 |
| Houston | 26.9% | 26.8% | 0.1% | 13 | 2.1 | 9 | -4 |
| Miami | 26.1% | 26.0% | 0.1% | 14 | 1.3 | 10 | -4 |
| Chicago | 25.2% | 25.2% | 0.0% | 15 | -0.6 | 17 | +2 |
| LA Clippers | 24.5% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 16 | 3.5 | 5 | -11 |
| Seattle | 31.2% | 31.4% | -0.2% | 17 | -1.2 | 19 | +2 |
| Charlotte | 30.3% | 30.5% | -0.2% | 18 | -2.3 | 22 | +4 |
| Detroit | 28.7% | 30.6% | -1.9% | 19 | -1.3 | 20 | +1 |
| Indiana | 25.2% | 27.4% | -2.2% | 20 | -0.3 | 16 | -4 |
| Boston | 26.5% | 28.9% | -2.4% | 21 | -0.9 | 18 | -3 |
| Washington | 28.4% | 31.0% | -2.6% | 22 | -2.8 | 26 | +4 |
| Philadelphia | 26.2% | 29.4% | -3.2% | 23 | -2.5 | 23 | 0 |
| Toronto | 25.2% | 28.7% | -3.5% | 24 | -4.8 | 29 | +5 |
| Memphis | 25.7% | 29.3% | -3.6% | 25 | -2.6 | 24 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 24.2% | 27.9% | -3.7% | 26 | -1.8 | 21 | -5 |
| Phoenix | 23.2% | 27.4% | -4.2% | 27 | -2.8 | 25 | -2 |
| Golden State | 24.8% | 29.5% | -4.7% | 28 | -4.2 | 28 | 0 |
| Sacramento | 24.1% | 29.5% | -5.4% | 29 | -3.5 | 27 | -2 |
| Portland | 27.6% | 34.5% | -6.9% | 30 | -5.4 | 30 | 0 |
Greek House|W|P|It seems to me that because of the Wolves high FG%, it would actually be somewhat less important for them to be good at offensive rebounding. Because they're making more of their shots, it's less important that they be able to rebound offensively because the opportunity is less frequent.Conversely, because of the Wolves good oFG%, it should actually be more important that they rebound well on the defensive end.
The problem right now is that they're slightly below average defensively (which gets magnified) and horrendous offensively (which gets deflated but is still awful).
Also, it is worth noting that although offensive and defensive rebounding seem similar on paper, they're actually two quite different skills, and I'm not sure that lumping them together is really all that helpful. Defensive rebounding is more about positioning and offensive rebounding is more about anticipation.
On defense, your goal is to use the positional advantage that you already have (by virtue of being closer to the basket) and to emphasize this by keeping your opponent out of the territory where the ball is likely to go. On offense, your goal is to penetrate the fortress that the defense has set up. The easiest way to do this is generally by having a greater sense of where the ball is going and to try and get there before your opponent does.
SBG|W|P|Total rebounds and rebounding margin both lump the two together, without an appreciation for the difference. DORP lumps them together, but at least recognizes the difference with ORP and oORP.One of the things I have been thinking about is points per possession as a metric for offensive and defensive effectiveness. ORP shows how many possessions (not ending in a turnover) are extended by offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds are important, especially to teams that don't shoot well, as you say.
One could argue that the Wolves' poor offensive rebounding negates or neutralizes their good shooting. If a team doesn't shoot all that well but hits the offensive glass with abandon, they may actually score more points per possession than a team that shoots well but doesn't rebound offensively.
Twins General Manager Terry Ryan said if free-agent right fielder Jacque Jones decided to come back to the team, the club would not sign a designated hitter and would instead spread the DH duties around present members of the roster. Meanwhile, word is that the best offer Jones has is a two-year deal from Kansas City.Despite the fact that Jones has rejected arbitration, the Twins can still sign him, at least for awhile (I think the deadline is in early January). I read this and I'm thinking, if Jones stays (and apparently, the Twins are pursuing him), the Twins are done with their offseason moves. If his best deal really is a two-year deal with KC, he may sign with the Twins. If that's the case, Terry Ryan gets an F. If he signs Jacque Jones, F. This team was the worst offensive team in the majors last year. Let's look at how Ryan responded in the off-season, assuming that they sign Jones and call it good. LF -- Same player CF -- Same player RF -- Same player 1B -- Same player 2B -- Luis Castillo, who gets on a lot (+), but has no power (-) SS -- Probably Bartlett or Castro, but could be a whole lot of Punto (gack!) 3B -- Tony F'n Bastista, who is a downgrade C -- Same player DH -- Cuddyer? Nah, he'll be jerked around. No Matt LeCroy, who mashes lefties. Lew Ford. Isn't that the same guy we had last year? WHERE IS THE UPGRADE? I ask you.|W|P|113477133843408533|W|P|More Depressing News|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
|W|P|I say it's about time Ryan catches some heat. Clearly they have a very solid idea what to do with starting pitching but are pretty much clueless everywhere else. This was an offseason which required bold strokes. They simply are not capable of making these kinds of moves. Also, Ryan is infatuated or enamored with his ability to pluck these diamonds in the rough. Hogwash. He's had 10 years at the helm - the majority of the time his teams stunk. He had a mini run in a bad division. So what. Where are all these so-called great prospects and why have none gone on to be true superstars? This franchise will be mired in mediocrity for the balance of this decade and maybe longer. frightwig|W|P|If TR does nothing else this winter, he gets his F from me. The Castillo trade was a minor upgrade to the lineup as a whole, with some significant downside potential and a $5m cost that might have been better applied elsewhere. The Romero deal was just a dump. Getting draft picks for Jones--OK, fine. I might give him a C- at that point, with hopes for further improvement. But Batista being his answer at 3rd base? Unacceptable. We've now gone from Corey Koskie to Cuddyer/Rodriguez/Tiffee to Tony F'ing Batista. That's just abject failure on the GM's part. Bringing back Jones on top of it all is just like multiplying by zero, an F on top of another F. After this Batista deal, TR is gonna have to do something pretty damn fantastic to pull his job rating out of the crapper. I'll blog about it later, but right now I'm just too pissed/depressed thinking about it. |W|P|I really like the "Tony F'ing Batista" moniker; I hope it sticks. Much better than "Nicky F'ing Punto" or "Kyle Mickey Frickin' Lohse," although I just made that last one up.Here's betting that Tony lives up the name.
SBG|W|P|Of course, it was our guy Aaron Gleeman who came up with it. frightwig|W|P|FWIW, I hadn't read Gleeman before posting here. I came by the epithet naturally. I expect a lot of Twins fans will feel the same natural urge, sooner or later, once they realize what sort of player TR has given us. SBG|W|P|I believe you are correct, fw. |W|P|I am just waiting for the snappy nickname for Terry Ryan, and finally the rightful assumption of blame assigned for building these horrible offenses. It's also clear that if he had his druthers 'ol Jaque would be back hackin' away too. On base percentage? Plate discipline? Who needs it.Let's face it - this guys is as much of the problem as Gardenhire.
SBG|W|P|If the off-season this year ends up as disastrous as last year's, the gloves will come off. |W|P|I guess when your offseason goal is to win more 1-run games (and by that I don't mean to win more total one run games over a season, but to get players that in a given one run game could be the difference by hitting a homer or bunting), then the Castillo and Batista moves make complete sense. Maybe Gardy is actually making all these deals?I just can't wait until the one game that Batista wins with a home run. It'll happen in the first half of April (ala JJ's OBP streak and Cuddy's horrendous streak) and will result in Batista's unquestioned presence in the 4 or 5 hole until July when the Twins are out of the race. Then Cuddyer will be traded for a left-handed single-A pitching prospect.
|W|P|How many doors will Lohse smash this year?I think Silva will actually be the one going postal as the Twins are finishing 4th in the AL Central - wasting another year of brilliant starting pitching.
Greek House|W|P|I think Batista would be a better player if he faced the right direction when he batted. I can't believe that nobody has pointed this out to him yet.The Twins plan here is obviously to mention this to him. Then he'll go .300/40/100. Brilliant move by the Twins.
frightwig|W|P|I can hardly wait for the first week of spring training, when Batista hits a bomb and Gardy declares himself suitably impressed to guarantee Batista his $1.25m salary and starting job in the middle of the order. |W|P|You can't hang this one on Gardy. Ryan has basically mandated this is your opening day starting 3rd baseman. At the very least you have at the very least call this the most feeble GM/Manager tag team on the planet. These two guys (Ryan and Gardenhire) are singing off the same songbook. Nothing will change until both of them are gone/ frightwig|W|P|Because Batista's contract is not fully guaranteed, Gardy actually does have the power to cut him during spring training and the club would only owe Batista a severence payment. But it's not going to happen unless Batista completely blows it. It's going to be like Offerman again, but on a bigger scale. Gardy will want the "veteran 3rd baseman." He just needs to see Batista flex a little power at some point in March to clinch the deal.But going without forward Eddie Griffin for most of the game was strictly a decision by coach Dwane Casey. Griffin had established himself as a key member of the team's top rotation of seven or eight players but faced the Kings for less than seven minutes. The night before, at Philadelphia, Griffin played a low-profile 18 minutes. As Casey explained it, Griffin got squeezed Tuesday by solid play from center Michael Olowokandi, a need for Mark Madsen's energy after the team's sluggish start and the coach's desire to go "small" down the stretch, with Kevin Garnett as their only true big man on the floor. "It wasn't anything he did or didn't do," Casey said of Griffin, who missed his only shot but had two rebounds and one block. In his nine previous appearances, Griffin had averaged 22.1 minutes and 9.4 rebounds. "It was just rotational," the coach said.I think this is Casey keeping a matter in house. If I'm right, it shows that Mr. Casey understands that he doesn't want to air dirty laundry in the press (unlike a certain baseball manager with whom we are all familiar). Of course, Dwane could be telling the truth. What do you think?
Greek House|W|P|I voted rotational.The Wolves needed a kick start the way they were playing and Maddog has always been the guy to bring it. Once he was in there, he actually gave a fairly solid performance. I think Casey was just taking advantage of this performance which cut significantly into Griffin's minutes.
Of course, anything Casey wants to do to improve EG's shot selection is fine with me. NO MORE THREES!
Victor|W|P|Almost certainly it was the shot selection. Did you see that shot he took? It was just so unbelievably horrible and everyone in the building and watching on TV knew it had absolutely no chance of going in. Ugly.I am happy Casey is keeping it in-house. Hopefully the discipline works and EG stops shooting and concentrates on banging below the boards, where he could turn into a very good complementary player for this team.
Surely becoming KG's front court side-kick, known for your rebounding and shot-blocking, sounds like a desirable and even marketable gig for a young guy like Eddie. Get that guy some PR advice.
I envision a billboard outside Target Center with the two of them standing, grim-faced, arms crossed: KG & EG: Thou Shalt Not Pass.
SBG|W|P|Yeah, that shot was H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E. Cheesehead Craig|W|P|Oooooo, "hubris", you are feeling better. |W|P|I don't think you can bash "Top Jimmy's" column today. He's right. Talk is cheap unless Wilf stays true to his word and proves otherwise. SBG|W|P|I'm not going to bash that column, but you had to know it was coming (I wrote that post before he posted his column).I said myself that I was outraged by this incident.
|W|P|I think Griffin played less and Madsen and Kandi more because the game the night before went into OT. Honestly, I wasn't surprised the Wolves lost (the last second shot was no less painful) because they "left it all on the floor" in Philly. It's a shame they couldn't have won one of these games though. SBG|W|P|Shane --Griffin only played 18 minutes in that overtime loss. Kandi played 28 and 27 on consecutive nights. I think Madsen took Griffin's minutes because Griffin casts up lousy shots (4 threes in Philly and that stupid shot last night).
|W|P|Ah. I stand corrected. Truth be told I was also under the weather for those two nights. My mind must have been playing tricks on me... Greek House|W|P|During my senior year of college, the day after I finished my comps, I got the flu and threw up 27 times in 12 hours. (personal best!)Eventually I went to the hospital and they gave me an IV. They were so slow there though, that I actually watched an entire Twolves game and then took a nap before they got around to servicing me. We played the Suns, and we won.
SBG|W|P|I once threw up for 45 minutes straight on a little airplane. I don't know how there was anything left inside my body. The plane landed, everyone else got out, and I sat in the plane and continued to vomit.That was the second flight that day. I threw up for a pretty much the whole way on that one, too.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|I would actually encourage you to write while sick and feverish. It would make for some interesting reading. Greek House|W|P|"I would actually encourage you to write while sick and feverish. It would make for some interesting reading."I agree. You could be the next Hunter S. Thompson. :)
SBG|W|P|Fear and Loathing in SBGville. It has a certain ring to it, rube. Unknown|W|P|You're kind of a sickly lad lately, eh? Unknown|W|P|One might say that they put out some half-baked crap last nite. SBG|W|P|Who? The announcers or the team?Answer: Both
In the first half, Jim Peterson did say that this game would be a blowout if the Wolves didn't let Philadelphia cash in on second chance points. True enough. And they lost this game because they didn't rebound.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|First off, if I may crow a bit. A.I. was held to under 25 points which I recall saying would happen :). Watching some of the highlights, why is KG content to shooting the gamewinner from 18-19 feet? I know he can hit them, but he certainly had time to drive and get a better shot closer to the hoop. He's gotta be able to take Weber off the dribble. KG had a rare disappointing game.
SBG|W|P|Time was a factor. If you are talking about the shot in overtime, he only had 0.4 seconds. I think he missed a game winner in regulation, too, with little time on the clock. Cheesehead Craig|W|P|It was the game winner in regulation I was speaking of. I never fault a player with a missed shot at .4 seconds. The Sixers tied the game with 23 seconds left, KG had the ball for about 5-6 seconds and dribbled the ball while essentially standing still and settled for a bad shot. That was my point.
SBG|W|P|Yeah, that was not good. |W|P|I agree KG drove me nuts on that last play. Dribbling the ball for 5 seconds was stupid and set him up for an goofy shot.I'll also say that KG got hammered in the OT drving to the basket for a dunk that would have put the Wolves up by one. The refs sure were letting them play last night.
|W|P|I know the tv guys suck, but what do you think of the radio guys? Personally, I love Billy McKinney. He's an absolute treat to listen to after the nightmare called Trent Tucker...
SBG|W|P|Love McKinney. Has a lot of things to say. I liked TT, too, but his delivery can be offputting.Chad calls a decent enough game and engages McKinney. Both of these guys aren't afraid to say, hey, the Wolves stink tonight. That's important to me because when they talk about how well someone is playing, it has some validity.
Greek House|W|P|I think we all know that TT was the second greatest announcer in Twolves history. To this day, Petey and I still quote him."Terrell Brandon does not like the 18 footah. Steps up, takes the 15 footah. That's good basketball. It's an easy game if you play it the right way."
Also, I agree. The Wolves played like a bunch of dorps last night.
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|One thing about A.I., his scoring stats are overinflated as he has played the Bucks 3x and has torched them each time. The Bucks cannot stop elite scorers (see Lebron's 52 on Sat). The Wolves should hold him to under 25 SBG|W|P|I'll be shocked to see him under 25, but if he has to take 30 shots to get his points, it's all good. frightwig|W|P|Um, was Garnett the one supposedly guarding (and boxing out) C-Webb? SBG|W|P|Believe me, there's steam coming out of my ears on this one. frightwig|W|P|I'll look for the Vikes to lose to Pittsburgh and Chicago, finishing 9-7 and 2nd in the division. If they back into the playoffs, they're probably one-and-done. SBG|W|P|I'm on record with that exact same prediction. No way do they win a Wild Card with a 9-7 record, though. |W|P|Artest for Wally anyone? The Pacers are going to do everything possible to send him to the West. I imagine the T-Wolves are up there on the list of preferable places for him to play where they can get at least a reasonable return. In order, it probably looks something like this:Sacramento - Peja
Lakers - Odom
Clips - Maggette
Dallas - Howard
T-Wolves - Wally
SBG|W|P|He's a head case of the highest order.Even still, I'll chew on it for a while.
|W|P|And it's totally worth chewing on. Though he is a serious head case. Imagine this:Jaric/Hudson
Hassell
Artest
KG
Griffin/Kandi
A move for Artest would really solidify the Wolves identity as a strong defensive team. Plus I think that Artest's offensive game is better suited for the Wolves than Wally's.
| Games | Minutes | Blocks | Off Reb | Def Reb | Reb. Total |
| 18 | 19.83 | 2.56 | 2.06 | 4.78 | 6.83 |
| Games | Blocks/48 | Off. Reb./48 | Def. Reb./48 | Reb. /48 |
| 18 | 6.18 | 4.97 | 11.56 | 16.54 |
| Games | Blocks/48 | Off. Reb./48 | Def. Reb./48 | Reb. /48 |
| 7 | 7.08 | 7.08 | 14.46 | 21.54 |
|W|P|Not much to argue with here, SBG. But you were a little unfair to the "early" Rodman's defense. All-Defense first team for Detroit in 1988-9 through 1992-3, then again for San Antonio in 1994-5 (with a second-team ranking in 1993-4) and for Chicago 1995-6. He was a great defender for Detroit and a very good one for SA and the first year in Chicago.
SBG|W|P|The comment on Rodman's defense should have been more clear. I was referring only to his Chicago days. |W|P|Yea. By the end in Chicago, Rodman had become a one-dimensional freak show.I lived in Champaign-Urbana at the time, so I saw a lot of Bulls games. The Bulls played great (ok, maybe that's a bit much; "really good"??) team defense in those years even with relatively weak inside players (Longley, Rodman, Wennington, Caffey), thanks to superior perimeter defense (Jordan, Pippen, Ron Harper). If you can't make an entry pass, the quality of the post defender doesn't matter very much.
Anyway, fun and interesting post, SBG.
Peder|W|P|That's very sad. |W|P|I feel for you. A home is always a home. No matter what shape it's in, or how long it's been since we lived there, it still has a pull on us.People say I'm crazy doing what I'm doing Well they give me all kinds of warnings to save me from ruin When I say that I'm o.k. well they look at me kind of strange Surely you're not happy now you no longer play the game People say I'm lazy dreaming my life away Well they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me When I tell them that I'm doing fine watching shadows on the wall Don't you miss the big time boy you're no longer on the ball I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round I really love to watch them roll No longer riding on the merry-go-round I just had to let it goI just found this song to be fantastic. He didn't need to be a Beatle. He didn't need to be famous. He was happy just living life quietly. Back in those days, the idea of a song on the radio that was personal was foreign, at least to me. I'm not saying that there weren't these types of songs, I just wasn't hearing them. But in 1980, as I listened to Lennon, I got an appreciation for what songwriting can be... expression of personal thoughts and feelings. Of course, further reflection on the latter years of the Beatles catalog shows that Lennon and even McCartney were writing very personal stuff. My point is that Lennon's stuff here really was a revelation to me. As I heard a snippet of Imagine on the radio again this morning, I am reminded of how that song made me uncomfortable as a kid, and I think about how my attitude about that song has changed. It was hard to embrace the basic premise back then -- Imagine there's no heaven -- I was enrolled in a Catholic seminary after all. But, the song resonates with me today. I don't think that Lennon was necessarily calling for an end to religion, countries, and possessions, but he was definitely pointing out how these things can cause unhappiness and strife. Perhaps he was saying that if we had different priorities, we'd all be happier. I think about Bill O'Reilly's ridiculous "War on Christmas" mantra. What tripe. Does the phrase "Happy Holidays" ruin Christmas for you? Then, I guess maybe you should think about the strength of your own convictions. Do you think that Christians in the time of Nero would have been insulted by that phrase? I don't think so -- they were too busy being eaten by lions and being burned alive. Look -- Christianity survived that. It certainly can survive an inclusive statement such as "Happy Holidays." But, people like O'Reilly want to use religion to incite hatred and fervor, to what end? To save Christmas (as if it needs to be saved)? Or to push a political agenda? You decide. Tell me, what has done more to destroy the idea of Christmas than the incessant beating of the commercialism that pounds the senses for about two months. Is Christmas about buying, buying, buying? Imagine a Christmas with no added possessions, a time when you got together and just celebrated with your families. Frankly, if someone said, no more Christmas presents, I'd be ecstatic. Instead, let's all of us honor Jesus or God or Buddha or Mohammed or whomever you choose, and take the money that we had set aside to buy the latest gadgets and whizbangs and whatever else we don't need and give it to the poor. Imagine all the people living life in peace. Imagine all the people, sharing all the world. I'll bet Lennon would have endorsed that expression of Christmas, or Hanukkah or whatever. I hear some "religious leaders" actually state that if you aren't Christian, you aren't qualified to hold office in this country. I realize this is only a small minority of fanatics, but it troubles me to no end. Of course, imagine if there weren't jihads, holy wars. Imagine if religions didn't control countries like Iran. Freedom of religion and freedom from religion are both tenets of the First Amendment, just like freedom of speech. I don't want to start a big political debate. I don't want you to think that I believe Lennon was a saint or someone above reproach. He most certainly had his demons. No question. But, he had the courage to break out of the money making machine that is pop music. He spoke out about issues that he believed in (even if he didn't necessarily practice what he preached). He was brave to do so. And some of his thoughts make sense and resonate strongly today. I realized today that I am older now than he was when he died. I'd have liked to have seen him grow old. I would have liked to have heard him speak out now. But, he's gone, and he's been gone for 25 years now. That's a shame.|W|P|113405477093443133|W|P|25 Years|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com
magnu231|W|P|I like the heart-felt column. The problem with John Lennon is that all he did was imagine and watch the merry go round go by. I really don't like the song "Imagine", and it's not just because I'm a Christian, Libertarian, Capitalist. It's because the song represents a problem that became prevelant in the 60's, namely, imagining rather than acting, and dealing in fantasies rather than reality. I could sit here and dispute whether a world without possessions, "nothing to kill or die for", or religion would actually be a better one (personally I'd hate to live in it). But just the idea of sitting back and saying, "wouldn't it be nice if the world could be this way" as a substitute for actually coming up with realistic solutions is a problematic one, that still haunts us today. We're still plagued by arguments that begin in a fantasy world "wouldn't it be nice if...". I don't mind debating socialism, religion, pacifism, etc. But not when the argument is based solely on imagination. So in that spirit,"Imagine KG and TMac,
Playing side by side,
And JKidd's playing the point,
with King James by his side,
You may say I'm a dreamer,
but I see Shaq in at C,
I hope someday McHale will join me,
and let me be MVP!"
Cheesehead Craig|W|P|SBG,You cannot see me, but I'm standing up and applauding at this column. One of your best.
SBG|W|P|So true, jmag.I can tell you that back in my previous life, we customarily chipped in to buy the boss a Christmas present, usually some stupid fruit basket or nuts or something. He didn't really care about that crap. So, one year, a bunch of us were talking and we put our money together and donated it to the local food bank in his name. I think he really liked that.
There's a big difference between wishing and doing. But, it starts with wishing.
|W|P|Please don't take this the wrong way. I enjoyed Lennon's music, too, and it's sad that he's gone. There certainly is nothing wrong about writing a tribute column to him.It's just that I've noticed there's been a lot more attention paid to the anniversary of Lennon's death today than there was to the anniversary of Pearl Harbor day yesterday. Again, there's nothing wrong with noting the anniversary of Lennon's death, but it seems to me that the perspective is a little out of whack.
SBG|W|P|I always remember Pearl Harbor Day, my brother-in-law was born 20 years later to the day. I watched a news story on the national news last night about it. No one would dispute that Pearl Harbor Day was one of the most important days in the country's history and is on the short list of the most important days in the history of the world.I remember how the death of John Lennon affected me. I don't remember how the bombing of Pearl Harbor affected me -- it happened before my parents were born.
On November 22, 1963, JFK was assassinated. I didn't write about that this year. His death was a lot more important than Lennon's. But, it happened before I was born. I don't have any personal recollection of it.
I didn't write about Lennon last year -- it's that this year is 25 years. A milestone, if you will. I wrote about Lennon because this morning I heard the song, I realized it was 25 years and it brought me back to a time in my life that I wanted to share. I also thought that Lennon's signature song resonates in today's world.
|W|P|The role of an artist in these sort of things is to inspire...to imagine. Artists don't "do." It's not what they're good at. When they try to "do" they usually eff it up. When they try to inspire outside of their medium, they are ridiculed. For Lennon to inspire via his most precious gift was exactly where he was most effective. The greatest impact he could have was with his music, not with presenting a new paradigm of government or economy to the U.S. congress. Agree or disagree, there's no value in belittling his attempt to use his greatest skills to influence many across the country.
|W|P|As I said, there's nothing wrong with you writing a column about John Lennon. My comment really wasn't aimed at you personally. It's just that yesterday I scarcely heard a mention of Pearl Harbor day, whereas I've heard several times today about John Lennon.I'm apparently a few years older than you, but I have no personal recollection of Pearl Harbor day either. You'd have to be about 70 to have such a recollection. That's why it's so important that we do remember it, and I'm glad that you do.
The line about those who don't remember history being doomed to repeat it has become a cliche because it's so true. People who are high school seniors today not only don't remember either Pearl Harbor day or John Lennon, they also don't remember Vietnam or Watergate. They don't remember a world without cable TV or personal computers. The first president they remember is Bill Clinton. That's why it's so important that we be reminded of these things.
Again, I'm not saying you personally had any obligation to write about Pearl Harbor day. When you come right down to it, you really don't have any obligation to write about anything. Nor am I saying you shouldn't have written about John Lennon. It's just that your column was about the eighth time today that I'd heard about it, versus one yesterday about Pearl Harbor, and the emphasis of everyone (not you specifically) seemed a little skewed. That's all.
|W|P|I think what SBG is getting at is that Lennon's death was more recent than Pearl Harbor, and therefore you're likely to hear more personal recollections about it (filtered through the media, news organizations, as well as around the water cooler etc.). Also, the Lennon anniversary is 25 years, which is the quarter-century milestone, and it's 64 years for Pearl Harbor, which isn't a nice round number. I remember hearing a lot more about Pearl Harbor (memorials and such) in 1991 or 2001. frightwig|W|P|I just want to back up what bjhess said. The greatest power available to Lennon was to reach people through his art. "Imagine" is a timeless song because, besides its beautiful melody, it doesn't lecture about its subjects--war, religion, materialism, etc. It posits questions and invites you to consider new ways of thinking. The man also did get off his ass and gave a lot of benefit concerts, joined marches and various political causes, and never was shy about organizing a media event and talking politics. But the impact of none of that is as lasting as his art. |W|P|SBG, I love this piece! A couple of things ... first of all "Watching the Wheels" is also my favorite Lennon (solo) song. It is hard to top. Secondly, the song "Imagine" has also made me uncomfortable in the past, but now I view it in another light. Basically, I see it as a challenge because quite frankly Lennon is right. If there were no religion in the world there would be less war, less hatred, less anger ... it is the truth. How can we change that? I've harped on this before ad nauseum, but Jesus would be disgusted with what is happening in his name these days. LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOR! As Lennon would say, it's easy if you try.Beautiful, SBG, just beautiful. By the way, how did we both get bumped down to Multicellular Organisms?
SBG|W|P|Thanks, Shane.I have been in somewhat of a pensive mood lately, introspective, if you will. Perhaps it's a sign of midlife crisis (I hope not), but I find myself reflecting back on my life and really thinking about how things have turned out, how I've changed, and has caused those changes.
I think a lot of people get lost in the Lennon was a hippie thing and fail to realize the poigniancy of his gifts to us. My next door neighbor when I was a kid and I were talking later on in life about Lennon and the Beatles. Not being the biggest Beatles fan (I'm a Stones guy, you know) I asked him why he was such a Beatles guy. He said, I'm a Lennon guy, not a Beatles guy.
Lennon was a true artist who had a lot to say. He has been missed.
|W|P|I had the most amazing experience back on September 18th of 2001. I went on vacation with a friend, and it just so happened that we left for our trip a few short days after 9/11.
We went to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland.
They had 3 floors devoted to a John Lennon exhibit, and we got there right when it opened that weekday morning.
The top floor was a totally white circular room with a domed ceiling, acoustically perfect.
All of John's handwritten lyrics were framed and hanging on the walls.
Some songs lyrics were enlarged and put in larger frames with speakers built into them, and when that particular song came up on the soundtrack they were playing, it came out of the speaker with those lyrics.
My friend is more of a Paul McCartney fan, so she wasn't all that interested, but I was enthralled.
John was always my favorite Beatle, and I didn't want to rush it.
I wanted to linger in that room, and savor every moment.
She tried to get me to go on with her, but I said she should go ahead, and I would catch up to her later.
She went on ahead, and I was all alone in the room.
I was standing in front of the speaker/frame, reading the handwritten lyrics to "Imagine" when the song began to play.
I sat down on a white marble bench directly across from the speaker, closed my eyes, listened to John's song, and cried....cried for John and the last 21 years without him...cried for all of the people killed on 9/11 and their families...cried for the rest of us here in the U.S. and around the world, knowing that we would soon be at war, and hoping (in all futility) that John's words would be heeded by the people in power.
It was a profound moment in my life, and one that I will never forget.
Imagine if John Lennon had not been brutally murdered 25 years ago.
Maybe he would have bridged that gap between wishing and doing.
We'll never know.
And that, my friends, is a damn shame.