Will Goliath Go Down?

My, how things have changed. A year ago, the Yankees were the prohibitive favorites in their ALDS matchup against the Twins. To almost no one's surprise, the Bronx Bombers manhandled Our Favorite Nine on their way to their 39th American League Pennant. This year, at least a couple of prognosticators are actually picking the Twins to send the Evil Empire packing and most of those that aren't see the Twins as a formidable challenge. What is the difference between this year and other Yankee teams? Well, for starters, this is not your older brother's Yankees team. This team doesn't have Paul O'Neill, a young Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez, and an earlier, much better, version of Derek Jeter. This team doesn't have Roger Clemens or Andy Pettitte or David Wells either. No, this Yankee team, this $180 million monument to George Steinbrenner's ego, is not the championship team of old. They have question marks. Sure, they have a tremendous amount of offensive talent: they scored 897 runs, second in the AL and 117 more than the Twins. But, the preseason predictions were that they'd score 1000 runs. And that pitching. With $73.1 million spent on pitching alone -- and that's after pawning Jose Contreras off on the White Sox -- you'd think that they'd be dominant on the hill (consider that the Twins entire payroll is just $53.5 million). You'd be wrong. The Yankees had a team ERA of 4.69, the worst by 0.41 of any team in the AL playoffs. Compare that to the Twins' team ERA of 4.03, the league's best (and the first time the Twins' have ever lead the AL in ERA). The Yankees will start Mike Mussina, legendary Twins-killer in game 1 and John Lieber in game 2. Mussina ended strong in September after an otherwise disappointing season (his ERA was 5.43 on August 31). Lieber has had a decent season, especially considering that he missed all of last season with an arm injury. He gives up a ton of hits, but he doesn't walk many. Lieber's been good, but he's not the guy that the Yankees would want to start game 2. The Twins will start Our Guy, who has been completely dominant (and he was pretty darned good against the Yanks last week, contrary to some reports) and My Personal Hero Brad Radke, who has been one of the best five pitchers in the American League this year. It's not hard to believe that a matchup between these teams includes the first two starters on one team that are clearly superior to the starters on the other team. The surprise is that it's the Twins' starters who are superior. Twins fans might be praying for Johan and Brad and weather that's bad. It's the Yanks, however, who have more questions. Do they pitch El Duque, who's been complaining of a sore shoulder? Do they go with Javier Vazquez, who had an ERA of 7.06 in the second half? How about Kevin Brown, still smarting from a broken (non-pitching) hand? True, the Twins don't have many answers beyond Carlos Silva, but three starters should be enough. The Yanks have a great closer in Mariano Rivera, and he's proven to be almost unhittable in the post-season (except of course for that one time, in the bottom of the ninth, in the seventh game of the World Series). The Twins have Joe Nathan, who has been every bit as good as Rivera, that is, he's been every bit as good as Rivera this year. The rest of each bullpen has questions as well as the end of each rotation (hello, J.C. Romero). However, the Twins bullpen is a little better with 3.94 ERA, compared to the Yankees' 4.45 ERA. When it comes to pitching, the Twins have a clear edge. If you want to talk offense, well, you must be a Yankees fan, or a pessimistic Twins fan. The Yankees hit the ball. Hard. Even though they fell way short of 1000 runs, they did hit a team record 242 home runs to tie for the AL lead. Five of the six Yankees who qualified for the batting title had an OPS of over .800 (only the aging Bernie Williams didn't). By comparison, the Twins hit "just" 191 home runs (their highest total in 17 years) and just two of their four players who qualified for the batting title had an OPS over .800. However, Corey Koskie, Shannon Stewart, and Justin Morneau also had OPS numbers over .800, and they'll be in the lineup everyday unless they are injured. The Twins have some good bats in their line up. But, they don't have Gary Sheffield or Hideki Matsui and they do have Cristian Guzman (.694 OPS), Henry Blanco (.628 OPS), and perhaps Luis Rivas (.715 OPS). Oh, and Guzman has a paltry .654 OPS against right handers. He may not face a single left-hander against the Yankees. Overall, the Yankees have a clear offensive advantage over the Twins. They are substantially better at catcher, third base, shortstop, and right field. They arguably more talented offensively at left field and second base. The Twins have an advantage in center field (Torii Hunter vs. Bernie Williams), DH (Lew Ford vs. whoever), and at first base (Li'l Harmon vs. John Olerud). We all know that the Yankees can score. What I like about the Twins' offense this year is that they are hitting the ball out of the park alot more than in the past. I mentioned the 191 homers. That's 36 more than last year. Even though they scored slightly fewer runs that last year, I like the fact that they are a better deep threat. Also, while all that righty pitching that the Yankees have may be hard on Guzman, I'm sure that Jacque Jones (.118 higher OPS against righties than lefties), Morneau (.228 higher), and Corey Koskie (.178 higher) won't mind. As for the head-to-head matchup between the two teams, the Yanks handled the Twins last week. I don't care. I think the Twins sent a message back in August that they weren't afraid of the Yankees in winning two of three and nearly pulling off an improbable win in the third game. The Twins had other priorities last week -- getting guys healthy, getting the pitching staff ready -- than winning. Sure, it would have been nice to win one or more of those games, but had Santana pitched 8 innings instead of 5, they would have won one. And had Radke pitched 7 innings instead of 5, they might have won two. And with Carlos Silva pitching the third game instead of Kyle Lohse, well you get the picture. I also think back to 1991, when the Twins were facing a Toronto Blue Jay team that owned them. The Twins lost four out of six games in the last two weeks of the season to the Blue Jays, had lost eight of twelve for the season, and nine of twelve the year before. The Twins even lost game 2 at home in the 1991 ALCS -- and then thumped the Blue Jays three straight on their way to the World Series crown. I mentioned August. Between July 30th and September 2nd, the Twins showed that they could play with anybody and everybody in the American League. August was by far the toughest month for the Twins schedulewise, and they acquitted themselves nicely. They took two of three from both Boston and New York, and they split six games with Anaheim. They beat back their closest rival at the time, Cleveland, by winning four of six. They took five of seven from Texas. Other than a lost week against Oakland and Seattle, the Twins were outstanding. During this stretch, the Twins showed that it isn't who they were playing, it is how they were playing that counts. If they play well in the post-season, they can compete. Having said all that, I think (and so does everybody else) it comes down to this for the Twins. If Santana and Radke are great, they can win. If they're not, well, hot stove league, here we come. It's easy to say that the Yanks are going to win on paper. It's hard (on my heart) to pick against the Twins. I can see a scenario where the Yanks manhandle the Twins and move on. I prefer not to look at that. In a 101 game series, I'm picking the Yankees to win. With all that money, they had better be able to beat the Twins based on sheer talent alone. But, it's a five game series. The Twins have the important pieces in place to be able to compete and win in a short series against anyone in the league. Sometimes, all the number crunching in the world is useless. Sometimes, the baseball gods have different plans. Sometimes, David beats Goliath. Like this year. I think that Santana and Radke will come up big. I think we'll see a series much closer to the series between these two teams in August than the one they just played. I think the Twins will win this series.