Curt Schilling says what he thinks, and what he said to sports talk radio listeners in Boston on Wednesday afternoon is that the Red Sox would not have been in the World Series if Alex Rodriguez was on the team. "The biggest move, when all was said and done, was the non-move. I think if we get A-Rod, we don't get here [to the World Series]. I don't question that for a second," Schilling said on WEEI's "The Big Show." As recounted in the Boston Globe, Schilling continued, "He's a Hall of Famer, sure. But after getting to know people who, A, play with him and, B, have played with him, I don't think it would have worked here. I think this clubhouse would have been a much different place, and I don't think it would have been better, given the personalities involved." The proposed trade with the Rangers to obtain Rodriguez would have sent Manny Ramirez to Texas. Ramirez stayed in Boston and was named World Series MVP.

10/28/2004 09:05:00 PM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|I thought he was asked the question about the A-Rod trade. I like Schilling because he's not 'baseball politically correct' like Jeter or even A-Rod himself. To quote Office Space, he's a straight shooter with upper management written all over him. He says what he thinks, and though some might read that as just wanting to get in the papers, I think Schilling's career speaks volumes itself

That's also why I pulled for this Red Sox team after the Twins got knocked out by Darth Vadar and the Imperial Stormtroopers. They really ARE idiots, but damn they're good.

Eric
www.thebaseballboys.com10/29/2004 05:30:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|I think, and have written many times, that Schilling is a hell of a pitcher. It just seems to me that at this particular point in time, when you are on top of the baseball world, it would be a good time to be gracious.

It's one thing to speak your mind -- and I like that. Here, however, Schilling has decided to criticize a player from another team. And he didn't say he wasn't a good player. He pretty much said he was a bad teammate and a bad guy. I take issue with Schilling saying that at this time, even if it's true. It's called winning gracefully.10/28/2004 03:34:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Note the hands.

Update: I happen to think that this is a visually stunning picture. Look at the bat, how it stands out. Look at the shadows and the focus on Aaron.

|W|P|109899617047684689|W|P|Hank Aaron as a Young Man|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/28/2004 06:29:00 PM|W|P| Butch|W|P|Nice picture of Hank, Bonds was once that size to! Don't care what anyone says, the "61" were still the highlight of my baseball life. They were honest and the guy was GREAT!! He carried the pressure of beating a icon better then any of the so called stars of today! 61 in '61 was the most exciting baseball story of my life. The next best thing was the Twins series wins!10/29/2004 05:03:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Yes, the hands are correct. I don't think that he ever batted cross handed at the major league leve.10/29/2004 05:03:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Yes, the hands are correct. I don't think that he ever batted cross handed at the major league level.10/28/2004 08:24:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|It's hard to feel bad when a team's fans have lived and died with a team like this one and they finally win the series. Now, however, the Red Sox are just another team, albeit the defending World Champions. How will baseball react to the death of one of its all-time story lines? It's like Charlie Brown actually kicking the football. I think it'll be just fine. If you want to cheer a loveable loser, pull for the Cubs (they need to remake their roster -- Sosa and Alou are not loveable). They haven't won the World Series since 1908. Hell, they haven't even been there since 1945, and that was when the rosters were depleted because of World War II. I hope the Cubs dump Sosa (and Alou), if they do, I'll have to head out to the bleachers and enjoy a couple of games next summer. Do you want to know the difference between Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds? In the sixth inning last night, Pujols came up with a man on first and two outs in a relatively tight game. No one even mentioned the idea of intentionally walking him. Never came up. And he had a guy hitting behind him who was hitless in the World Series. Oh, and Pujols popped up. Bonds is walked in that situation every single time, even with Scott Rolen on deck. How anemic was the middle of that lineup? Pujols did hit some and Larry Walker had a nice World Series. Rolen, however was 0-15! And Jim Edmonds was 1-16, and that one hit was a bunt! Reggie Sanders was 0-9. Let's face it. Boston only scored 13 runs in the last three games. And they won each of them by a minimum of three runs. Boston's pitching completely handled the mighty St. Louis lineup. Completely and totally. Unbelieveable. On a personal note, I hope you have enjoyed reading my little webpage over the last couple of months. I intend to continue to write in the offseason -- and I will definitely talk about the Timberwolves. There are a lot of things to talk about with the Twins, too. I am optimistic that the T-Wolves may be able to go the distance this year. Stop on by and talk basketball and hot stove league baseball. |W|P|109897201657710650|W|P|The Red Sox Win|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/28/2004 02:28:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Thanks Miller Man. Some day I'll venture up North and we'll have to get together with Beaner and take in a RedHawks game. Take care.10/27/2004 01:43:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|I read this nugget in Jayson Stark's column at ESPN.COM today.

One more example of how tough it is to commit eight errors in two games and still win them: In the last 25 years, only three teams even committed eight errors in the whole World Series and won the Series -- the 1997 Marlins, 1982 Brewers and 1981 Dodgers.

Now, the Stick and Ball Guy makes mistakes. For example, when I was recounting (in my head) the number of times that the Red Sox have been in the World Series since World War II, I mistakenly forgot their 1975 appearance. However, if you ask me "who was in the 1975 World Series" I would have known off the top of my head. I know, for example, that the Milwaukee Brewers have never won the World Series. I also know that in 1982 it was the St. Louis Cardinals who won the World Series. I knew that because I remember the series and also because it's been mentioned, oh I don't know, a million times in the last week or so, because it is the last time that the current National League Champion and 2004 World Series participant won the World Series. I'm assuming that Mr. Stark had someone do that little piece of research for him. I'm also assuming that as a national baseball writer, he should have caught that mistake. For the record, the 1982 Cardinals, according to Baseball Reference (and Retrosheet.org), made seven errors in the 1982 World Series. The Brewers made 10 -- and lost. Update: Mr. Stark has modified his column. Perhaps he's reading the Stick and Ball Guy. |W|P|109890340434288771|W|P|Kick 'em While They're Down|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/27/2004 08:04:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Below are my contest entries. As I said before, because I am late, I have disqualified myself. My answers are merely for entertainment purposes only.

Player	Pts	Comments
J. Morneau	25	No way he's not on the team unless he's injured. And I don't think he'll be injured.
T. Hunter	24	Hunter had early season hammy and with his big contract he's always a target to get moved. But, he brings way more pluses than minuses. I think he'll be there.
L. Ford	23	Fantastic 2004 season. Has all the tools. He's gonna be there.
M. Cuddyer	22	He should have a starting infield job. Will it be second or third?
J. Nathan	21	Pretty high for a pitcher. But, he's still going to be relatively cheap. He seems to have put arm problems behind him.
J. Rincon	20	Yankees debacle practically only blemish on otherwise excellent season.
J. Santana	19	Can't imagine that the Twins won't try to lock him up. 2004 the best season of any Twins pitcher that I can remember, possibly ever. Only this low because of the number of innings he threw. Injury hedge.
C. Silva	18	Cheap and serviceable. Nice season in 2004.
H. Blanco	17	Well, the Twins picked up his option. Only injury keeps him off squad. He can hit .050 in spring training and make it with the health concerns the Twins have about Joe Mauer.
N. Punto	16	He's Denny Hocking, except he's better and cheaper.
S. Stewart	15	A trade wouldn't hurt my feelings. He's a nice lead off hitter, but he makes too much to fit in the Twins budget. And he's a little fragile.
J. Crain	14	Good hard thrower. Nice stuff.
J.D. Durbin	13	The kid will get his chance.
J. Mauer	12	God, I hope so. I think it's pretty clear that his knee surgery was botched. It is entirely possible that Mauer will still be out by opening day. Considering his potential, and the investment the Twins have in him, I'd be careful.
B. Radke	11	I think the Twins will sign him. I wish I could hang 25 points on his name. One of the best five pitchers in the American League in 2004. Rarely hurt. Excellent control.
J.C. Romero	10	I'm sure that Terry Ryan would love to send this guy packing. He's been so inconsistent. But he's left handed, and he's probably going to be wearing a Twins uniform again next year.
M. LeCroy	9	A terrible year. Can't catch anymore. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if he's gone.
J. Mays	8	At one time, he was like a godsend. Then, the Twins locked him up to a long-term, big money contract. And he turned into a pumpkin. He's been out for a year and a half. He'll likely be ready to go in 2005. Unless they trade him. Yeah, right.
K. Lohse	7	Yuck. I'm sick of him.
J. Bartlett	6	He's not ready.
G. Balfour	5	Has great stuff. Seems to have matured tremendously. Huge upside. How's that shoulder?
C. Koskie	4	Hurt a lot. Big contract. Prone to slumps. Led team in HRs. May take less to stay here. I think he'll be gone, but I'm not sure.
T. Tiffee	3	Mr. Koskie's replacement.
O. Vizquel	2	If only he'd take $2 million.
C. Guzman	1	A flyer. Wouldn't give him more than $2 million. Bartlett's not ready, and Guzman is not long term solution, especially at $5 million.

|W|P|109888538207712088|W|P|My Contest Entry|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/27/2004 07:29:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|

Boston Red Sox -- 2004 World Champions

Unless the Red Sox collapse like the New York Yankees before them, Boston will win its first World Series Championship since the end of World War I. In 1918, my Grandfathers were young boys and one of my grandmothers wasn't even born yet. I never thought I'd actually see a Red Sox world championship, but I'm pretty sure now that I will this year. I was listening to the first inning on my way home last night when I realized that I have been shortchanging the Red Sox. I mentioned before that three of their four world series were against the St. Louis Cardinals. The voice of Joe Morgan reminded me of the 1975 World Series, one that I personally watched, with the game 6 home run by Carlton Fisk. So, I am corrected by Joe Morgan. Imagine my shame. As I watched the St. Louis Cardinals kick away game three, I was left with one impression more than any other. The Boston Red Sox are simply better than the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Sox have shut down the Cardinals lineup, which is huge, but they have no margin for error, either. Think of it. The Red Sox commit eight errors in the first two games (eight!) and they win them both. The Cardinals ran themselves out of two early opportunities and had no chance last night. They just didn't have the margin of error. It didn't help the Cardinals that Pedro Martinez pitched like the Pedro of old for most of the game. In retrospect, that game 1 loss was a killer -- the Cardinals couldn't beat Tim Wakefield and a porous defense, and then they had to face Curt Schilling and Martinez. Ouch. I thought that the Cardinals would get to Pedro. He's seemed more human the last few years. And the Yankees have given him the business the last two years in the playoffs. With a lineup like the Cardinals, I thought that they'd get to him. And they had their chances early. But, lord have mercy, Manny Ramirez threw out a runner at the plate (albeit from deep short). And apparently, Jeff Suppan had a designated hitter all through Little League, because he clearly does not know how to run the bases. That 4-3-5 double play in the third was the ugliest piece of baserunning I have ever seen at the major league level (and that includes the rundown that I saw Harmon Killebrew get in as a member of the Kansas City Royals). I mean, he could have walked into score. I really didn't have a rooting interest. I was hoping the Cardinals would win, but mostly, I wanted to see a good series. Who knows? A 3-0 lead is usually safe (and before this year it was always safe). If the Cardinals somehow come back and win this thing, I would think that this would be the biggest blow to the Red Sox nation ever. The Cardinals can get back in it if the middle of the lineup wakes up (Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds are a combined 1-16) and Jason Marquis can hold down the Red Sox lineup tonight. In the playoffs, Marquis has, in two starts and one relief appearance, thrown 8 1/3 innings (ouch!), allowing 9 hits and 6 earned runs with three HRs and 8 (!) walks with only two strikeouts. Oof. Of course, one good outing tonight and all is forgotten. But, I don't see that happening. The Red Sox have been too dominating, too good, too much better than the Cardinals. I see the Red Sox blowing away the Cardinals tonight and sweeping away both the Cards and the 86 year old curse. |W|P|109888220069950684|W|P|Try This on for Size|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/26/2004 08:11:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|The Stick and Ball Guy has been away for a while. I'm going to try to get a post in later this evening, but right now, I don't have a lot of time to post. Item #1: Randy Moss "Plays" Against Tennessee I don't care if he kept his streak of consecutive games alive at the expense of his consecutive games with a catch streak. These are meaningless records. I could not care any less. I will note this: ever since his flap with the traffic cop, Randy Moss has done nothing but keep his mouth shut and be the best receiver in the league by plenty. Item #2: Curt Schilling Again Pitches Red Sox to Big Win Don't doubt for one second that Mr. Schilling is in serious pain. His performance in the post season has been fantastic. I mentioned much earlier that if Our Guy doesn't win the Cy Young Award, Schilling would be a deserving winner. Make no mistake, Our Guy deserves the award. Even still, he's got a ways to go to have the career that Schilling's had. Item #3: Defense wins Championships Maybe that's the case in football or basketball. And maybe the Red Sox defense will tighten up or become very costly. But, through two games, the Red Sox have eight errors -- and two wins. Item #4: Prediction With the Red Sox up 2-0, my prediction seemingly looks bad. You may have seen that teams that go up 2-0 in the World Series win 77% of the time. Some notable exceptions: 1986 Red Sox, who won the first two on the road. 1996 Atlanta Braves, who were swept in the next four games by the evil empire. 1978 Los Angeles Dodgers, who were swept in the next four games. If you remember game 2 of the 1978 World Series, Bob "Ebony Eyes" Welch struck out Reggie Jackson to end the game in an epic at bat. Back then, I was an AL only guy, so I was cheering for the Yankees (hey, I was only 13 years old). The Yanks came roaring back and won in the next four games. So, the series is not necessarily over. The Red Sox do have Pedro Martinez pitching tonight, and he's pretty tough when he isn't facing the Yankees. This St. Louis lineup is pretty tough, too. Clearly, St. Louis needs this game and I think they'll get it. Item #4: Lunch On Friday, Moss, Drew and I had lunch with Aaron Gleeman. I had met Aaron once before. Remember that Star Tribune article talking about blogs? Well, if you saw it, you saw a nice story about a bunch of people who write blogs about the Twins. Stick and Ball Guy, while not mentioned in the article, did give the Star Tribune a couple hours for an interview at their request. I was pretty disappointed that the Strib couldn't find one column inch to quote me or invite me back for the picture (such is life), but I did get to meet the aforementioned Mr. Gleeman. Our lunch on Friday was a lot of fun. Aaron is fun to talk to, and we enjoyed discussing blogging, the Twins, life at the U, etc. Mr. Gleeman, you are welcome to join us again at your convenience. Item #5: Contest There has been a slight change in the contest. Because my picks are late, I will award tickets to the winner of the contest, and I will remove the caveat that the winner has to beat me. I will try to post my picks -- they are almost done -- by the end of the day. I will also post, at some time in the near future, a rundown on the entries. I won't reveal anyone's identities, just composite stats. The entries were fun to get. I got entries from far flung places. There are Twins fans everywhere, and I enjoyed hearing from all of you. That's all for now. |W|P|109879785438721022|W|P|I've Been Away|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com11/04/2004 02:19:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Yes, I had a couple of people enter after Kubel got hurt. Some still listed Kubel!10/22/2004 08:14:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|The St. Louis Cardinals won the NLCS in dramatic fashion -- with a come-from-behind win against one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young and sure-fire first ballot HOFer Roger Clemens. Stick and Ball Guy feels that Houston made a huge mistake by holding Clemens until game 7 and now the Cardinals -- the best team in the NL all season long -- will meet the Red Sox in the World Series for the third time since World War II. As this is only the fourth trip to the fall Classic, it is quite a coincidence that the Cardinals have been their opponent three times. Interestingly, although the Cardinals did not face the Red Sox in 1986, they did go the World Series in both 1985 and 1987. I don't know if anyone else thinks that this is an interesting little factoid, but I sure do. Incidentally, the 1946 and 1967 World Series ended the same way, St. Louis in seven games. It says right here that the 2004 World Series will also be St. Louis in seven games. Watch out, Stan the Man, you are in for a roller coaster ride! One of the truly great things about baseball, aside from the statistical treasures is the history of the game. I, for one, love to read about the history of the game. And so today, I'd like to go back to a remarkable year in baseball history, 1986. In 1986, I was in college and I lived next to some baseball players, one of whom was a bandwagon Mets fan who made fun of my Twins a lot. (I got even the next year, BABY!) I hated the 1986 Mets, so I was pulling for the Red Sox in that series. I got plenty sick of that Mets team, and I was pretty upset with how that World Series ended. Looking back, I see a lot of similarities between this year's playoff and that fateful year. First of all, the Red Sox made the World Series after an improbable comeback in the ALCS. For those who don't remember, the Red Sox trailed the Angels three games to one and they trailed by a score of 5-2 in the ninth inning of game five. However, Dave Henderson hit a home run in the ninth off of Donny Moore (who sadly, never recovered and eventually committed suicide) and the Red Sox eventually won the game in 11 innings and went on to win the pennant. Of course, this year, the Red Sox not only beat the Angels in the playoffs, but also won with an improbable comeback in the ALCS (yes, the added round of the playoffs does not make the analogy perfect). In the National League, the Cardinals, the best team in the NL (like the 1986 Mets) also won a hard fought NLCS against the Astros. The Astros of 1986, like this year's model, had a great pitcher in Mike Scott, the NL Cy Young award winner. Even though the Mets were supremely talented, the NLCS was extremely close. The Mets won in six games, including a 12-inning win in game 5 and a 16-inning win in game 6. In that 16th inning, the Mets got 3 runs in the top of the 16 and the Astros countered with 2 in the bottom, just falling short. The Mets scored three in the ninth to tie the game and each team scored a run in the 14th. For my money, 1986 was the most exciting post season in history, considering the playoffs and the unbelievable World Series. So, once again, the Red Sox are in the World Series. And once again, they face the Cardinals, their old nemesis in World Series play. And the circumstances of these playoffs are fairly close to those of 1986. Watch out Doug Mientikiewicz, I see a late inning grounder coming your way. One last note: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY THAT YOU CAN ENTER STICK AND BALL GUY'S 25-MAN CONTEST. E-MAILS RECEIVED BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED IN. GOOD LUCK AND GET YOUR ENTRIES IN! |W|P|109845224433299981|W|P|Baseball World Seeing Red|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/25/2004 04:05:00 PM|W|P| Butch|W|P|Hey Stick and Ball Guy, You might what to revise your pick as to who the winner is going to be! Remember that I said "Red Sox" Ha Ha just kidding! (where have you heard that before!) Keep up the good writing, really enjoy your slant and the information that you come up with. Really hope that next year we will be watching the "TWINS" in the fall classic! Got to love those guys!10/21/2004 09:21:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Just like yesterday, the sun came up. It's cool and slightly drizzly in Minneapolis. A typical October morning. The sky was cloudy, but not threatening. The light rail train was on time. I could see no evidence of any natural disasters. Questions for the day. Discuss amongst yourselves. Has anyone else noticed that the Yankees have not won a World Series since they started having Ronan Tynan sing God Bless America during every playoff game? Am I just a little sick for taking delight in the fact that Captain October was a non-factor in a series in which the Yankees completely collapsed? Does the fact the Red Sox almost got A-Rod but didn't and then won the AL Pennant count in the A-Rod factor (both Seattle and Texas improved dramatically after he left)? Does Phil Garner wish he had thrown Roger Clemens yesterday? Do you think he's happy that his bullpen threw 132 pitches yesterday? Stick and Ball Guy thinks that Mr. Garner was stupid not to go with Clemens. Stick and Ball Guy thinks it will cost the Astronauts a trip to the World Series. Do you think that Doug Mientkiewicz will complain about his playing time in the World Series? Do you think that FOX should retire Tim McCarver immediately and replace him with Al Leiter? Check out Aaron Gleeman's in game diary over at the Hardball Times. The kid is a very good writer. (I say "kid" because I'm old enough to be his father.) I'm sure most of you know about his writing already, in fact a lot of you come here because of him. His article was very good. By the way, Aaron, Buster Olney claimed not to be rooting for any team in this series. Right. He was probably wearing his Number 2 jersey during the game. Just in case you were wondering: Stick and Ball Guy does not believe that this was the best series ever played in the history of the world. The Yankees were not competitive in the last two games on their home field. They got blown out in Game 7. I derive great satisfaction from the outcome, to be sure. I especially like that the Yanks blew a 3-0 lead. But, were you sitting on the edge of your seat in the ninth inning last night? Did you think the Red Sox were going to blow a 7 run lead? Didn't think so. As far as drama is concerned (and forget the hype of Yankees/Red Sox), I believe that the NLCS has been a lot more exciting. How about Jim Edmonds -- "I'll see your walk-off homerun in the ninth, Truck Washer, and raise you with one in the twelfth." Have a good day everyone and enjoy another Game 7. |W|P|109837104525871953|W|P|The Sun Came Up in the East |W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/21/2004 11:09:00 AM|W|P| Andrew|W|P|I am so with you about Tim McCarver. I wrote about him just yesterday.10/20/2004 07:53:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Item #1: Boston 4, New York 2 Okay, it's a series, it's a rivalry. S&BG has to admit that this thing is very interesting. I've gotten pretty sick of Yankees/Red Sox over the years, and I don't need to see all 19 regular season games on national television at the expense of the rest of the league. And, when this series was 3-0 Yankees, I looked pretty smart by ignoring the whole damn thing. But, now it's 3-3 and no team has ever been down 3-0 and forced a game 7. So, now it's exciting. Last night was exhibit A as to why Curt Schilling was a viable candidate for the Cy Young Award. He's a great pitcher. Our Guy is going to win, and he acquitted himself nicely in the playoffs. But Schilling has been the Next Guy about three and really has been unlucky to have great seasons at the same time that someone else, in this case Our Guy, has been spectacular. Our Guy looks like he'll have a very good or great career. Schilling has already had that. So, hats off to him. Believe it or not, I fell asleep and missed the eighth and ninth innings. So, regrettably, I missed Captain October's RBI single. I also missed A-Rod's interference and the resulting mayhem. Drat. How delicious would a Red Sox win tonight be? Not just to get the 800lb. gorilla off their backs, but also to have the Yankees commit what Drew calls the "greatest gack" in playoff history. If only Captain October can somehow contribute to a Red Sox win. I realize that I am now in dangerous territory for actually having written all that down. If I'm eating words today, I could be choking on them tomorrow. Item #2: Houston decides to rest Clemens until Game 7 This is a gusty move. If it works, you have Clemens and Oswalt on long rest for the World Series. If it doesn't, the Cardinals will have gotten a huge break. Since I am making wild speculations, I think this move backfires, and I think Houston will be playing game seven at Busch Stadium, not a desirable situation. Item #3: Chris Hovan wasn't traded Yippee. He's still ours. Have a good day and cheer for the Red Sox. |W|P|109827829568004118|W|P|More Ketchup, Please|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/20/2004 09:58:00 AM|W|P| Andrew|W|P|Yah! Chris Hovan wasn't traded. He's not ours. The Colts were interested, but I think they did the right thing by not going out and getting Hovan.10/19/2004 07:40:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Item #1: Boston Beats Yankees in 14 innings How about David Ortiz? Who knew! I mean, he was a nice player for the Twins. He's become an animal for the BoSox. What an at bat in the 14th! Not only that, but he had two other RBI, including a crucial home run that started the Red Sox rally in the eighth. It was nice to see the Yankees down to Esteban Loaiza in their bullpen. That was a good sign. The Yankees are still up 3-2, but the Stick and Ball Guy grudgingly admits that he'll have to check out game 6. Oh, and Captain October was 1-7 (albeit with a 3-run double). His numbers for this postseason? He's at .244/.354/.366/.720 for the post season, including .182/.357/.227/.584 against the Red Sox. I realize that it's always dangerous to spout numbers before the playoffs are over, but there they are. Enjoy them while you can. Item #2: Houston wins 3-0 on 3-run homer in the bottom of the ninth The previous game dragged on forever, so fans like me got to see one inning of this post season gem. One inning! And, if you are a baseball fan, what a gem of an inning. I'm sure that my friend Stan the Man will not agree, and I can't blame him. For St. Louis fans, what a heartbreaker. For Houston fans, that's over the top. For Giants fans, well... can't like the old Truck Washer winding up the hero. Man, did Brad Lidge look awesome. He made the second best hitter in the major leagues look absolutely helpless in the ninth. I've never seen Albert Pujols swing like that before. On two consecutive pitches, it wasn't a half-swing, it was more like a quarter-swing. Hey, Albert, when did you channel Stick and Ball Guy's swing? Sheesh. And the pitching overall, wow. Woody Williams, one hit over seven. Brandon Backe (who?!?), one hit over eight innings against the Cardinals' lineup. How does this happen? Who is Brandon Backe? I looked up his numbers, and well, he's nobody. He started nine games this year in 33 appearances. He gave up 75 hits in 67 innings and had a WHIP of 1.52. But last night, he was unhittable. Go figure. I also like the ground rule that Houston has with respect to their roof. If a ball hits the roof in foul territory, it's a dead ball. The Twins should implement this rule. When a ball hits a speaker and shoots toward a player standing out on the field, I think it's embarrassing. Make it a dead ball. When it hits a speaker in play, well, it's in play. But that is a rare occurrence. The speaker in foul territory is relatively common. That rule change would eliminate at least one source of embarrassment. Back to the ninth. With one out and Lance Berkman at the plate, Carlos Beltran stole second. Berkman had a 2-2 count, and the Cardinals decided to intentionally walk him. Of course, this backfired when the Truck Washer hit a mammoth three-run homer, but really, do you intentionally walk a guy with 2 strikes on him? How about trying to get him to chase a bad pitch? This was my thinking at the time. The talking head on TV told me it was a no-brainer. I'd have thrown one more bad pitch to see if Berkman makes an out. That's me. Of course, as it turned out, it makes no difference. Now, the Cardinals have to beat Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt. It can be done, of course, but losing last night was a killer. Item #3: Jerry Rice Traded to Seattle When you are the best of all time, you have earned the right to play on until no one cares anymore. Item #4: Chris Hovan on the Trading Block The Vikings reportedly want a fourth rounder. Riddle me this. What has happened to this guy? I saw him on Sunday and my impression is that he is fat. He seems incredibly slow. I can't say one way or another, and I have no proof, but something is really fishy here. Any ideas? Item #5: Contest I have received a number of entries, but you still have time. Come on and join in! See if you can get two free tickets from the Stick and Ball Guy! |W|P|109819146882520696|W|P|LCS Fireworks|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/19/2004 09:34:00 AM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|Hey Stick and Ball Guy! Where did you see that Hovan is actually on the trading block? I've read that Indianapolis is interested in him, but that the Vikings won't deal him. I'd love to see the Vikes package Bennett and Hovan and try to get some immediate defensive help for this year, but I don't think that will happen.

Shane
http://blog.lib.umn.edu/snackeru/greet/10/19/2004 09:52:00 AM|W|P| SBG|W|P|I heard it on the radio this morning. I thought I heard it yesterday as well. I did read somewhere (Pioneer Press? I don't remember) that Tice was fed up with Hovan for some unknown reason (other than he can't play anymore?) and wanted to trade him. Today, Peter King is reporting that "surprisingly, defensive lineman Chris Hovan could be had for a price in Minnesota." The "Superstar" was saying this morning that the price was a fourth round pick. Sigh. I had to admit I was listening to that this AM.10/18/2004 07:23:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|I was with Lucy all weekend and was unable to follow any sports action, so my thoughts will be brief. I just wanted to comment on the following items. Item #1: Twins Buy Out Cristian Guzman Thank God. As you probably know, I thought that this was a no-brainer. I wish he were better, he just isn't. I would not be against signing him at a [much] lower salary for one more year. But, his numbers were not good enough to merit a $5.25 million salary, especially with Johan Santana needing a big raise, and all the other questions. I doubt the market will be anywhere near $5.25 million for Guzman so I wouldn't be surprised if he were back in Minnesota. I'd also like to see the Twins try for an old veteran, say Barry Larkin or Omar Vizquel to play for a year and tutor Jason Bartlett. What I don't understand was why the media, specifically Jim Souhan and Patrick Reusse, were pushing the idea that this was going to be a tough decision for the Twins. Souhan's article when the Yankees came to town about how well Guzman was playing was a blemish on his otherwise good reputation. And Reusse flat out must be getting soft. This is a guy that he would have ripped ten years ago. Item #2: Doug Mientkiewicz Complains about Batting Ninth in Boston Doug, Doug, Doug. If you would have kept your mouth shut, you could have played a lot more in Minnesota down the stretch. The fact is, Dougie M. doesn't have the proper tools to be a legitimate everyday first baseman. He can't hit. He can't hit enough. Doug should thank God Almighty that he's going to make $4 million next year. Anyone who is reading Stick and Ball Guy and is making that kind of money, please send me an e-mail. I'm thinking the box will be empty on that request. As we saw after the trade, Justin Morneau will be just fine defensively -- sure he's not as good as Doug, but he's good enough. And he looks like a 40-homer guy. Incidentally, the Twins have had one player, count them, one! in their history (since they came to Minnesota) who has hit as many as 40 home runs in a season, Harmon Killebrew, who did it seven times (and once more in Washington). Come on, Li'l Harmon! I know you can do it! Item #3: Boston Wins in 12 Innings Big deal. The Yanks have 3 more chances to put it away. Who thinks they won't? It's not a rivalry unless each team wins. At least once. Item #4: Houston Takes Care of Business I know it's not as glamorous, but that NLCS is tied 2-2. It will be interesting to see if the Astronauts go with Clemens in game 6 on short rest or not. The Stick and Ball Guy says they will if St. Louis wins game five. Item #5: Daunte Culpepper Has His Way with the Saints Okay, he threw two interceptions, but one was on the play that Randy Moss hurt the hamstring. But Culpepper throws five more touchdown passes last night in that scary 38-31 game. Seriously, do the Vikings have a single player on that defense that can make plays? Question number two: is this the best Vikings offense ever? I know that in 1998 they had Cris Carter and Robert Smith, but Culpepper has been better than Randall Cunningham by a lot, and the Vikings seemingly can put anyone at running back, although Mewelde Moore looks absolutely great catching and running the ball. Did I mention that Culpepper has been great? Have a good day everyone. Thanks to all who have entered the contest. I should have cut the deadline off earlier, I thought the Twins wouldn't make moves so soon. Oh well, next year I will have an earlier deadline! |W|P|109810370008905275|W|P|Monday Morning Roundup|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/18/2004 10:50:00 AM|W|P| Andrew|W|P|What about Pokey Reese? His contract with Boston is up at the end of the year. He is only making $1 Mill per year. I think he'd be great at shortstop for the Twins.

He came up through the Reds' system as a shortstop. I remember seeing him play with the Indanapolis Indians back when I still lived in Indiana. They moved him to second base because Barry Larkin was already at shortstop. The adjustment back to short shouldn't be too difficult.

His defense is outstanding, as shown by his 2 Gold Gloves. This would be good for Barlett to learn from. He doesn't have power, per se, but he can put it in the gap and fly. I've seen many a extra base hit from Pokey. He's definately a line drive type hitter.

Just one more thing, my dad is on board with the idea. He's kind of an old fogey who doesn't like change, be even he thinks Pokey would be better than Guzman. That's gotta count for something.10/18/2004 05:46:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|I'd rather have Guzman at $2.5 million than Reese. He's another guy who hasn't lived up to his early career promise. He is a career .248/.307/.352/.659 hitter. He is a good glove man, but he's the same anchor at the plate that Guzman is.

Larkin had a very nice year at the plate, but he's certainly diminished in the field. On the field, Vizquel is a better option than Larkin for sure. He's three years younger and hasn't been hurt as much as Larkin. He had a very nice year at the plate (for him) this year --.291/.353/.388/.741 in 148 games. He also made $6.2 million and the Twins could only give him a couple of million, tops. At 37, he'd be a nice stopgap to Jason Bartlett.

A concern about Vizquel has been his sometimes strange comments, including his book in which he ripped his longtime teammates. I'll argue that this doesn't really mean a whole lot for most players (see my discussion of Bonds) but I want Vizquel to teach Bartlett how to play shortstop. Larkin would likely be a better teacher, but Vizquel's defensive game is pretty damned good. Maybe Bartlett just learns through osmosis.

Of course, Reese has somewhat of a checkered past as well. Signing Reese would be a move strictly to have him play shortstop. I doubt he'd be a good teacher for Bartlett.10/15/2004 09:10:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|It's been a hectic week, to say the least. I'm going to be gone all weekend, and I worked pretty hard this week . I'm pretty tired, so I'm not going to write much. I encourage you to enter the contest, the rules of which are below. Remember, there is no obligation to join, and if you are the winner, that's right, Stick and Ball Guy will give you 2 free ducats to the game of your choice next year!!!!! What a deal! See details below. Thanks to those who have entered so far. I was supposed to have lunch with Stan the Man today, but events have intervened. Oh well. I'm sure he's pretty excited about that big win last night. The Cardinals look great! I believe that they can win it all. Let's hope. Thinking back on my comments from yesterday about the National League. Remember that these two teams, Houston and St. Louis, are two teams that have not played for a World Championship in some time (actually Houston has never been to the World Series). St. Louis hasn't been in the World Series since 1987, when they were making their third trip in six years. They lost in seven games in both 1985 (damn that Don Denkinger, he cost the Stick and Ball Guy $50 -- I had 1-0 St. Louis in the pool for game 6) and in 1987 (that was okay in my book). If St. Louis can get to the World Series and win it, I believe the best baseball town in America will explode. As for Houston, well, they've had a very interesting season. They look a little overmatched right now, but who knows. Perhaps they'll get it together in game 3. With Clemens and Oswalt going next, perhaps the Astronauts have a chance to get back in. In other words, there's a real series going on. In the AL, it's, yawn, the Yankees pounding their little brothers. Now, I realize that last year's ALCS was about as close as it gets, but until the Red Sox actually eliminate the Yankees in a series, I'm not giving this matchup any credit. In other words, check back with me on this in about 20 years or so. Have a good weekend and don't forget to enter the contest! |W|P|109785057124695965|W|P|TGIF|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/14/2004 07:48:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|I was talking with Stan the Man the other day, and I mentioned that I wished that the Twins were a National League team -- that it was the Twins and not the Brewers that were located in the NL Central. Of course, Stan was all over that for a variety of reasons -- and I had to agree. First of all, the competition in the NL Central is very good. Unlike the AL Central, where there is little competition, the NL Central has a number of teams that compete. And it is exciting. Sure the Twins won their third straight divisional title. But, fans, ask yourself, how exciting was it, really? I mean, my attention was picqued when Cleveland made a run, but they faded so fast and so far that the Twins were running by themselves for most of the last six weeks of the season. That is not really all that fun. Remember 1991? Remember the thrill of beating out a very good Oakland team? Do you remember that all seven teams in the AL West were at or over .500 that year? Now, friends, that was exciting. If the Twins were in the NL Central, we'd say goodbye to 38 home games against Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland and the White Sox. We'd replace those games with tilts against St. Louis, Chicago Cubs, Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Yeah, the Bucs stink, but at least my friend Pinto would be happy (he's been a die hard Pirates fan since 1960). Instead of watching that loser Frank Thomas, we'd be seeing Albert Pujols. Instead of facing Jeremy Bonderman, we'd be facing Roger Clemens. Yes, the competition would be tougher, but the draw would be better, too. Fans who don't care about the Royals would come out to see the Cubs. With increased attendance would likely come increased payroll and maybe, just maybe (I know I'm being a little optimistic here) a new ballpark. Plus, we could play without the designated hitter. Amen to that! It's not that I want to see a pitcher strikeout 3 times a game. And, Stan's contention that the strategy is better doesn't make all that much difference to me either. What I like is that you don't pay some guy who can't play in the field a big chunk of money. I think the lack of a DH makes for a better allocation of salary. I've seen enough National League baseball to form an opinion. The NL game is better. And that's coming from a guy who has cheered on an AL team for 35 or so years. You might argue that the Twins wouldn't have won three straight NL Central titles. No doubt about that. But, with a competitive team, we the fans would have been treated to a lot more excitement. It's not a lot of fun not to have competition during the season and then get squashed by the Yankees in the playoffs every year. Speaking of which, the New York Yankees don't play in the NL. We'd avoid the Yanks (and the Twins would miss their three gates). If we did make the NL playoffs, we'd actually have a chance to advance. Since 1996, the Yanks have won the AL pennant six (and soon to be seven) times. In the national league, in that time, the Marlins have won the NL twice,the Braves twice, the Mets once, the Giants once, the Padres once, and the Diamondbacks once. In other words, it can be done. In the absence of a behemouth, there is actually competition. Of course, the Twins are doomed to the AL Central. They are doomed to 38 games against these three other teams. The best thing that can happen to the Twins is that the other teams in this division increase their level of play so that the Twins have some competition that would actually create some excitement. If the Twins won the AL Central in a close race over some good teams, it would be a lot more fun. Even if they lost some close races, it would be fun. Just be in some races. In the last 8 years, the Giants have played 12 meaningless games. The Twins played more than that this year, and they won. |W|P|109776003104664168|W|P|Twins in the NL Central|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/21/2004 11:24:00 AM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|When the leagues adopted the 3-division format around 10 years ago, I recall the Twins were one of the final candidates to switch from the AL to the NL. I was disappointed when the Brewers made the move. (What city's more "Beer-and-Whiskey League" than Milwaukee?) IIRC, Tom Kelly was against switching leagues, and claimed the Twins "weren't built well" for the NL. Of course, back then, it was fair to say they weren't built well for the AL, either. (And besides, who's more "Senior Circuit" than Rich Becker?)

Anyway, I say bring Washington DC, a charter city of the AL, back into the AL fold. We'll gladly swap affiliations. It'd be good for America! (Or something)10/21/2004 01:39:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|I think I remember Kelly saying that. At that time, the Twins were more like a PCL team.10/13/2004 07:36:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Here's the contest. I want you to predict what the Twins 25 man roster will look like on opening day. Here are the rules. 1. Choose 25 players that you think will be on the Twins opening day active roster (disabled list doesn't count), that is the roster that is established for the very first game of the season. 2. Assign each player a number between 1 and 25. No number can be used more than once. Example: supppose you think Lew Ford is the most likely player to be on the Opening Day roster, you would assign him 25. If you think that Torii Hunter is second, you would assign him 24. And on down to 1. Important: If you assign any number more than once, you will be disqualified. Do NOT assign multiple people the same number! 3. For every player that you correctly predict is on the roster on Opening Day 2005, you will get that player's points. So if Lew is on the active roster, you would get the number of points that you assigned him. 4. The person with the highest total wins. 5. If you are the highest total, and you beat the Stick and Ball Guy, I will give you two lower level GA (or a comparably priced pair of upper deck reserved tickets) to the game of your choice for the 2005 season (I am not responsible for sellouts, nor am I responsible for any problems associated with logistics of any sort. This is a gift and should be treated thusly.) I will look to see if I can get some sort of voucher from the Twins. 6. In case of ties or any problems with the rules, Stick and Ball Guy reserves the right to make all binding decisions. 7. If you have questions about the rules, e-mail me. 8. One entry per person. Include your full name on entry. 9. Email your selections to stickandballguy@hotmail.com. 10. Deadline for entry is October 22, 2004. 11. I will post my selections on October 23, 2004. 12. Good luck and have fun! |W|P|109767181663088001|W|P|Contest|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/11/2004 10:50:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Commander Clemens, all systems go! Roger that.

(I promise a more substantive post tomorrow.)

|W|P|109755312020709882|W|P|Astronauts Lift Off|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/12/2004 01:57:00 PM|W|P| Andrew|W|P|I like new header too. The genuine "Stick and Ball Guy" Louisville Slugger. Nice10/11/2004 05:13:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|

Stan the Man says: How about them Cards!

|W|P|109753304184187618|W|P|Stan the Man|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/12/2004 09:20:00 PM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|I'm confused. I thought that Stan Musial was the guy who played with one hand. He has two in your picture.

-A Twins Fan who saw your page linked to on the s-t website and now has you bookmarked.

P.S. I'm looking forward to your contest. Is there a prize?10/10/2004 06:53:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Last year, I went to game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees with a group of people from work. Moss was there, so was Drew. We were hoping for a Twins win -- the series was tied 1-1 -- but with Roger Clemens on the mound, our expectations were not that high. So, when the Twins lost that game 3-1, a score that doesn't begin to reflect how little chance the Twins had to win that game, I was disappointed, but not crushed. The Rocket is an all-time great and the Twins just had little chance. In four games against the Yanks last year in the ALDS, the Twins offense was practically non-existent. In four games, the Twins mustered just 6 runs, and two of those were gift runs in the first game. The Yankees stepped on the Twins throat, they made them cry uncle, they beat them like the proverbial red-headed step child. Even though the Yankees did not win the 2003 World Series (and I'll take a little solace in that fact), there's no denying that they were a very good team. They won 101 games, and they scored 877 runs while giving up 716. The Twins won 90 games, scored 801 runs and gave up 758. The Yanks were just better. They were better offensively, they had better pitching, and while the Twins had a little better defense, there's no doubt that the Yankees were simply the better team. This year, however, it's not so clear that the Yankees were the better team. Yes, they still won 101 games and the Twins won just 92. But just think about that last week or so of the season. Suppose the Twins had won a couple of those games against the Yanks and had been able to play everyone every day down the stretch. The margin between wins might have been a lot closer. And look at runs scored and runs allowed.

Team	Runs For	Runs Against	Actual Wins	Expected Wins
New York	897	808	101	88.6
Minnesota	780	715	90	87.4

Note that I'm trotting out my old friend "expected wins" to make an argument. If you have read my column for a while, you know that doing that is just a teeny-tiny bit hypocritical. As a disclaimer, let me say that I don't think that the Yankees were "lucky" to get 101 wins. I think that the variation from the expected wins number shows something other than luck. It may show an uneven pitching staff or an ability to win games close (by having a lockdown bullpen). I looked at the games the Yankees played after the All-Star Break. The Yankees were 46-30 after the break, slightly worse than their record before the break. However, they only outscored their opponents by 27 runs (compared to outscoring opponents by 62 during their 55-31 start). In games decided by more than four runs after the break, they were 12-15, and were outscored in those games by 21 runs. Subtracting those 27 games, the Yankees were 34-15 after the break, outscoring their opponents by 48 runs. In other words, the Yankees got blown out a lot for a team with their record (an uneven starting staff?), and this may explain why they deviated so far from their "expected wins." Nevertheless, the Yankees were giving up a lot more runs than they did last year, while scoring about the same. And that was the general belief, that the Twins could score against this team. In the four games between the two teams in this year's ALDS, the Twins did score more -- they got 17 runs, 11 more than last year. They hit four homeruns, compared to two last year. Last year, the Yankees scored 16 runs in four games, including eight in the finale, and it appeared they were toying with the Twins. This year, they scored 21 runs, and it feels like the Twins let them slip away. And therein lies the rub. The Twins DID let them slip away when they had them. Game 2 was a heartbreaker. The Twins broke through against Mariano Rivera -- he blew just his 3rd post season save in 33 chances -- and they got an extra inning homer from Torii Hunter, but the overworked Joe Nathan couldn't hold a lead (and still, a good throw from Jacque Jones gets Derek Jeter at the plate). And in game 4, well, what can you say. Juan Rincon can't hold a four-run lead, when he's been dominating all year. Pat Borders must know a little what Jackie Smith feels like -- sometimes it's better to retire too early than too late. Borders could have easily nailed A-Rod trying to steal third in the 11th. Even still, his awkward attempt at Kyle Lohse's critical wild pitch was painful to see. He had his glove turned the wrong way and he didn't -- or couldn't -- get out and block the pitch with his body. Borders' last inning as a Twin will be bitter -- for him and for Twins fans. I think it's easy to point the finger at Ron Gardenhire. I'm not going to say a whole lot about it except to say that I think he's much better equipped to be a manager of a team over a long season than he is as a game day manager. He seems to be good at keeping a team together, even in the face of conflict (hello, A.J. and Dougie M.). He doesn't abuse his pitching staff. Consider all of the Twins that got hurt this year -- and only one pitcher, Grant Balfour, went on the DL. I think he's shown too much loyalty to some guys (Jacque Jones against leftys, for one, Shannon Stewart playing left field everyday for another), but they have won three years in a row and Gardy deserves some credit for steering the ship. But, the playoffs require different skills and a little more flexibility. Having a system is nice for the season -- every guy knows his role, etc. But, in the playoffs, situations can dictate that the manager employ tactics which may vary from his system. This requires a lot more thought. Do you go away from Balfour when he's mowing down the other side in a four run game? Why would you not give him a chance in the eighth? Why not save Rincon for Sunday, unless he's absolutely needed? Of course, if he goes with Balfour and he struggles in the eighth, I'd be writing why not go with Rincon in the eighth. Ultimately, the frustration of this series is that the Twins could very easily have won. They could score on the Yanks. They were in a position to win two of the games they lost. The problem is, you can't give a team like the Yankees second and third chances. They are way too good for that.

Contest

Last year, I was talking to Moss and I told him about an idea I had about predicting the 2004 Twins roster. We didn't get around to actually doing it, but I'm going to this year. Hopefully, I'll be able to talk Moss and Drew into it as well. At least Moss. I'll post on this contest in a few days and I invite anyone to join in. I think it will be fun. Look for this in the next few days.

If you have any comments about the way things ended for the Twins this year, drop me a line. I'll post any good thoughts that I get from you.

Have a good week!

|W|P|109745790486824684|W|P|And Therein Lies the Rub|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/11/2004 11:17:00 AM|W|P| Andrew|W|P|The contest sounds like a good time. I'm in. Also, nice touch with the border seperating your posts.10/09/2004 07:48:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Lost opportunities. Squandered leads. Watch out golf courses, here come Our Favorite Nine. hint of cold in air is there frost on the pumpkin put spikes in garage |W|P|109736936238141582|W|P|New York 6, Minnesota 5|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/09/2004 06:19:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Henk and I readied ourselves for a big night of watching baseball. We were really pumped up. The series was tied, and we felt that after some really close games that this would be the night. Henk came on over to my place and we watched the game. Almost from the outset it wasn't good for the Twins. And it only got worse. Twins pitching could not stop the bleeding. Finally we just turned the TV off, our spirits dashed. Henk went home and I went out to put gas in my car or something. I was going to do anything other than watch the end of the game. My overwhelming thought was that it's over... the Twins have fought hard all year, and I really thought this was the year... but it's over. When you get to that realization, that it's over, it's a little tough. It's tough when you invest emotions in a sports team that loses. It's not tough, like losing a job, or losing a loved one. This a little tough, like stubbing your toe or having a girl that you like turn you down for a date. I won't need to take a day off of work or anything. Of course, Henk's married now with a kid, and he wasn't over at my place last night. No, that letdown was on October 24, 1991 and game 5 of the World Series when the Atlanta Braves pummelled the Twins 14-5. Last night's game was disappointing too. But if Our Guy can do his thing one more time, we can be in position to win on Sunday, just like we did after that disastrous game 5. It seemed like the end, but in retrospect that game was a tension breaker. Make no mistake, though. We need Our Guy now. A while back, I wrote an article about pitching, in which I explored whether a team can win without a good offense if they have great pitching. Tom Kelly used to theorize that it is all about the starting pitcher. True enough, a good outing by your starter always gives you a better chance to win. I'll say this... it doesn't hurt to have a bunch of mashers, too. I think that that is really the difference in this series. The Yanks are no longer the pitching machine that they were, hell they lost Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and David Wells just from last year! But, when you add the punch that they did, Gary Sheffield and A-Rod, well, that's a lot of lumber and it takes the pressure off of your pitching staff. Having said that, how many of you were shocked, and I mean shocked when Mariano Rivera came in during the ninth inning of a six run game? If the Twins somehow can pull this series off, we'll have more baseball to watch. I'd love to see the Twins take on the BoSox. That would be fun -- the little team that could against the team that never quite can. If they don't, well, it's not like life is going to end. Lucy and I will be getting married in a couple of months and we'll be happy (and she'll actually be just fine with it if they lose this afternoon). But, as far as the Twins are concerned, there is no tomorrow. It's on the line today. And we've got Our Guy going. |W|P|109732226438251037|W|P|Not So Much|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/07/2004 07:24:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Game 3 of the ALDS between the Twins and the Yankees shapes up to be a relatively big game for both teams. Unless you have been hiding under a rock, you know full well that the Twins and Yankees are tied 1-1 after the first two games. Yes, game 2 was a heartbreaker, but it is just one loss. Had Torii Hunter not hit a home run in the top of the twelfth (and thereby inspiring me to premature thoughts of the collapse of the empire) and the Yankees had pushed across a run in the bottom of the inning to win, Twins fans would probably not be feeling so bad. However, I think that there is much to be cheerful about. The Twins were down in that game and they did NOT give up. No, they battled until the death. Here's another thought I had about game 2. I mentioned in my pre series analysis that I thought that the Twins' improved ability to hit the long ball would be important for them in this series. In the top of the 12th, you saw that displayed. In a tight post-season game, there's nothing like a home run to make the difference. Yeah, I know that Hunter hit more home runs last year and that it didn't make the difference in game 2. But, I think there will be more close games, and there are more guys on this 2004 team that can win the game with one swing of the bat. I talked with Moss about Friday night's game and he was surprisingly optimistic about the Twins' chances. I for one am a little nervous about the pitching matchup, especially since Carlos Silva has been known to give up a lot of hits and strike very few batters out (255 hits and just 76 strikeouts in 203 innings) and the bullpen got blown out on Wednesday. Moss points out that Silva will be pitching on his regular rest and that this will be very good for him. Moss was quite concerned about Johan Santana and Brad Radke before the playoffs began because he felt that they were pitching on too much rest and therefore would be too strong. I don't know if he's right, but empirically we can say this: neither pitcher had his best stuff. If Silva is sharp on Friday night, I may give Moss a chance to guest write a column during the ALCS (if he so chooses). I heard Ron Gardenhire say today that Joe Nathan will be available on Friday. Yowsa. I also read where Gardenhire hid behind the excuse that Nathan told him that he was able to go in the 12th. Good God! What the hell is Nathan gonna say? Sorry skip, I'm done? I don't think so! I happen to believe that Gardy's move is defensible (he was between the old rock and hard place because of J.C. Romero's dismal September), but justifying it based on Nathan's assertion doesn't pass the giggle test. Moss asked me why Gardy didn't consider Lohse in the 12th. Good question. Getting back to Friday's game, Twins' fans are probably nervous about just what Carlos Silva will appear. Will it be the guy who pitched in September and was masterful, or will it be the guy who struggled earlier in the season? What I'm wondering about is how will Kevin Brown pitch. Brown is pitching with a broken non pitching hand, a self-inflicted injury that he suffered on September 3. Since his return from surgery, he's pitched twice, getting shelled by the Red Sox on September 26th and giving up one unearned run in 5 innings against Toronto on October 2. He has only thrown 106 pitches in the last 5 weeks, so maybe he'll be a little "too strong" on Friday. For the season, he's 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, allowing 132 hits and striking out 83 batters in 132 innings. He's certainly not the Kevin Brown of old, who was dominating, he's now an old Kevin Brown, who can be very good one time out and very ordinary the next. It's hard to say what we'll get there. This is a very tough matchup to call. I think the Twins will come out and play hard, forgetting what happened in game 2. I look for another close game, but I see the Yankees winning with Brown pitching well. I hope I'm wrong, and I think it's possible that it is. You know what? I am not writing for a newspaper and I never will be. I don't have to be objective. Who really cares if I'm right or wrong? When it comes to the Twins, I am first and foremost a supporter. I love this team. I love that they make between a quarter and a third of the Yankees salaries but are still competitive. I like that they play hard. I like that Torii Hunter has seemingly taken over the leadership of this team after What's His Face got traded away. I'll pull my hair out, I swear, if Lew Ford isn't in the lineup on Friday night, but what the heck, I'm here to pull for these guys. So forget that earlier prediction. The Twins are gonna rough up Brown and Silva's gonna give 'em enough. Twins win game 3. Good. I feel better.

NL Update

Atlanta ties series with an extra inning win. Sound familiar? Are the Astronauts done? I don't think so. Neither are the Twins. Murderers Row (Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, and Scott Rolen) went 2-15 tonight. Spell trouble for the Cards? Not a chance. St. Louis wins 8-3 and puts an "All-Star Wrestling" style chokehold on their series with the Dodgers. With Anaheim down 2-0 in their series, the much balleyhooed (at least at this website) California baseball is about one night away from extinction in 2004 without so much as a whimper. I'll bet that Stan the Man is happy. I can tell you that the Dodger fans aren't. That's eight straight losses in the post season. They have haven't won a post season game since they closed out the 1988 World Series, a span of 16 years. |W|P|109720063316472378|W|P|Game 3 Preview|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/07/2004 09:18:00 AM|W|P|SBG|W|P|Big Henk e-mailed me about last night's game. He correctly identified the real problem. It was the fact that J.C. Romero didn't start the twelfth inning. As Big Henk says, the reason he didn't start the twelfth is because he pitched like crap for a month straight. It was pretty hard to go to him when he had been completely ineffective for such a long stretch. I had a lot of thoughts about the game last night and this morning. If you get too analytical about it, you can think about the effect on the players, a life lesson, how much you are disappointed, etc., etc., etc. I think the best thing to do is realize that it's just a game and it's over. The Twins players need to forget about it. Tomorrow is another game. I memorialized my thoughts during the game last night, shown below. If you like Prime Numbers, Big Money, and a roller coaster of emotion, give it a read. Have a good day, everyone! Go Twins! |W|P|109715903715025648|W|P|Sometimes it's not what you do, it's what you don't do|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/06/2004 05:16:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P| Pre Game: More of the same tonight. I'm gonna be logging in periodically to check the game and comment. No watching the game, though! Sigh! The Twins got a great win last night. I would have liked to have seen it, but c'est la vie. What I liked about last night was that Our Guy Johan Santana wasn't perfect, he struggled, and the Twins still won. They didn't have to be perfect to win, and that's good. I expect that the Twins will win tonight, too. Here's why. Their starting pitcher, My Personal Hero Brad Radke, has been great this year and he has pitched well in the past. I think the Twins will score more off of Jon Lieber tonight, and I think all the pressure is on the Yankees. How important has Radke been to the Twins resurgence over the last four years? In my mind, he's been the most important piece of the puzzle. Consider this. The Twins were down and out for the umpteenth year in a row. Radke was able to leave as a free agent and he signed a long term (and rich) contract with the Twins. It was his signing that signaled a return from despair for the Twins. Over the last nine seasons, he's been a workhorse for the Twins, starting 32 or more games and pitching more than 210 innings in eight of them. Over the last four seasons, the longest run of winning seasons in club history, Radke is 49-34 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1.20 and a K/BB of 4.62. Obviously, he's not Roger Clemens, but he's been pretty darned reliable. Lost in the brilliance of Our Guy, Radke has had the best season of his career in 2004. True, his record is just 11-8, but that doesn't begin to tell the story. His 3.48 ERA is third in the league. He was fifth in innings pitched (218), second in Quality Starts (24, to Our Guy's 25), third in K/BB (5.50) and third in WHIP (1.16). He's arguably been the 3rd or 4th best pitcher in the American League. In short, he's been consistent, and he's been consistently good. In addition, he has been a very good post-season pitcher. In four starts, he's posted a 2-2 record with a 2.19 ERA. Talk about no run support! In 24 2/3 innings, hes allowed 24 hits while walking 4 and striking out 16. That translates to a WHIP of 1.13 and a K/BB of 3.75. Three of his four starts have been quality starts, including both of his losses. The only non-quality start included a memorable first inning in which the Twins defense played keystone cops allowing a popup to drop for a hit in front of the pitcher's mound and four unearned runs in the first two innings. This was the first Twins playoff game in eleven years, and the jitters were evident. Radke came back and won the decisive fifth game. This is why I like the Twins. They've got their battle tested pitcher out there. They're coming off a nice win. And the Yankees are not throwing a stopper like they did last year in game 2 (Andy Pettitte). The bookmakers have made the Yankees a 175/-185 favorite. After favoring the Twins last night, apparently bettors are not impressed with Radke and are betting the Yanks. Perhaps they don't read Stick and Ball Guy! 6:30 PM Good Grief. The Captain homered for the Yankees to lead off the game and My Personal Hero walked a batter in the first inning. That is not good. Jon Lieber throws six pitches in the first inning? The Twins scored a run, but wow, six pitches. 7:00 PM Well Radke can't complain about run support, at least not so far. The problem is he's giving up runs. Number 25's best friend, Gary Sheffield hit a two run dinger and with one out in the third, Radke's given up 3 runs and 5 hits. It's a tie game, but I don't like it. I'm pretty sure the Twins don't want to get in a slugfest with the Yanks. Just I am ready to post, our old friend the double play comes. Through three innings, Radke's thrown 46 pitches. At that rate, he'll not make it past six innings. Of course, if he continues to give up a run an inning, his night will be shorter -- and the Twins' night will be longer. 7:30 PM Michael Cuddyer is 4-5 with a run and an RBI so far in the two games and he was the pivot in three double plays last night. I can't imagine any reason why the Twins would offer Luis Rivas arbitration and pay him a bunch of money next year. If anyone has any good reasons to do so, please let me know, 'cause I can't think of one. A-Rod homered in the fifth putting the Yanks ahead 4-3. The Yankees are flexing their muscle tonight. There goes the Quality Start for Radke. Radke gave up 23 homers in 34 starts and 219 2/3 innings during the regular season. Tonight? Three. Actually Radke gave up 3 home runs in a game 4 times this season, including 3 times in four starts from June 30 to July 16. 8:00 PM The Twins are still in this thing, despite a relatively poor outing so far by Radke, but they better score soon, as time is getting short. But, instead the Yanks score again, and A-Rod is the run producer. Sigh. 8:30 PM I'm tired, the game is getting late and Our Favorite Nine are down 5-3. Eighth inning. Mariano Rivera can come in at any time. I wonder if the Twins would start a rally here with no outs if Joe Torre would bring him in to get six outs. Well, not six, but how about five? Jacque Jones strikes out but reaches and Torii Hunter singles. Two on, one out. Up comes Li'l Harmon. The Yankees have to go to the bullpen, don't they? Who else would you rather have up in this situation? I mean, one swing of the bat and we are right there. C'mon Li'l Harmon! Rivera is in. Five outs, including a pressure situation. The best post-season reliever ever. The kid who has the potential to be one of the Twins' all-time great sluggers. And he delivers a run scoring single on the first pitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take that, Doug Mientkiewicz! Oh! My! God! We've gotten to Rivera! Corey Koskie doubles home a run! It's 5-5 and Rivera has blown the save! Now, it's Kubel! If only, if only! Imagine Kubel and Morneau, two (essentially) rookies touching up Rivera! The possibilites are making me giddy! Shoot. He struck out. And now Cristian Guzman grounds to Rivera and the inning is over. Wow. We have a chance here! I suppose Rivera will pitch the ninth, but I'll bet Torre is kicking himself for pitching Rivera last night. 9:00 PM Not knowing how this is going to turn out tonight, you have got to hand it to the Twins. They have battled back, and they did it against the great Rivera. One question, though, and I'll bet my friend Moss has the same question. Why pinch run for Li'l Harmon? Now you've got Rivas hitting in his spot in an extra inning game. I think that this was a mistake, unless he is hurt or something. There sits Rivas due up third in the tenth (if we get there). 9:09 PM I just had a horrible thought. What if The Captain hits a walk off home run? Nah, that's not going to happen... Is it? Juan Rincon is tiring. He's run the string out to Miguel Cairo. The Captain is up next. C'mon Juan! Yes! He got him! Rincon's line: 2 IP 0H 0R 0BB 4K. At 33 pitches, and having pitched last night, he's done. We go to the tenth. How about another "vulture" win for Juan! Top of the Tenth Now's the time to do it. Tanyon Sturtze is pitching and next inning it's the top of the Yankee lineup. But, Jones and Hunter go quietly, and now it's up to Li'l Harmon Luis Rivas Matt Lecroy. And he walked! But Koskie struck out. Sigh. Bottom of the Tenth It's Joe Nathan's turn. I would imagine that Nathan can be good for two innings here. But first, he's gotta get through the three guys that have homered tonight. Hey, Joe, that's why you get the big bucks!! Nathan made $440,000 this year. That's probably more than anyone who's actually reading my blog, in fact, I almost guarantee it. If you are reading this and are making more than $440,000 in 2004, drop me a line. Oh, by the way, The Captain, A-Rod, and Sheffield made a combined $52,356,012. Go get 'em Joe! Top of the Eleventh After that bruising lineup (down 1-2-3), the Twins counter with Kubel, Guzman, & Cuddyer. A-Rod has 381 career home runs. These three guys have a combined 1,036 hits. I mean, if you think about it, Our Favorite Nine has no business slugging it out with these guys. And yet, here we are. That's why it's so exciting to root for David. Goliath has every advantage. When Goliath wins, how can you really be excited? Bottom of the Eleventh This is gonna get tough. What do the Twins do after Nathan? J.C. Romero? Shudder! Of course, Nathan has to get through Godzilla, Bernie Williams, and Jorge Posada. Total Salary of these folks? Just $28,357,143. Not even worth mentioning. If I was making money in that kind of range, I'd want to have an annual salary that is a prime number. I don't want $10,000,000. How boring! I want $9,999,937, which is a prime number. Is this too much to ask? I don't think so! If you think this is a ridiculous thought, think for a second how ridiculous it is that the top six guys in the Yankee lineup tonight are making $80,713,155. Top of the Twelfth The thing about post season baseball is that when the game is close, the tension is incredible, even for the fans. If you are watching a game at the Metrodome in July and it goes into extra innings, you are either gonna take off, or you are going to stay. Either way, there comes a point when you no longer care who wins, just get the game over already. Of course, it just isn't that way in the postseason. If the Twins win this game tonight, they can deliver a crushing blow to the Yanks. And so you want it to be over, but this may be the defining game of the season. And you know it. And you can't take it. And then, Torii Hunter hits a two out home run, in say, the top of the twelfth inning and you want to scream from the roof tops. But you know that the Yanks have another shot at it. And anything can happen. And I'm glad that Tanyon Sturtze, he of the what, minimum salary(?), is out there pitching his third inning of relief. And the empire is crumbling and they've got some journeyman on the mound. And, please God, let it end this way tonight. Did I mention that the tension is incredible? Bottom of the Twelfth You really wish Radke could have pitched one more inning. But here we are. And Nathan's out there for his third inning. He's not pitched this much in one outing all year. The most pitches he's thrown all year is 33, and that was in one of those rare, he doesn't have it tonight outings. And he's facing John Olerud, whose grandparents live less than 20 miles from my home town, and that's in the part of the world where everybody knows everyone else. And I knew Olerud's first cousin, who always went to the Metrodome to cheer John on, even though he was a big Twins fan. And Nathan puts Olerud down tonight. Good. But he walks Cairo. And here comes The Captain. And I hate The Captain. And I fear The Captain. Because he's overrated and he's still damn good, respectively. And Joe's thrown five wide one in a row. And six. Damn. And he's up to 44 pitches. Seven in a row. Eight. And the tying run is in scoring position. And it's A-Rod with his 381 career home runs. Nine. Finally, a strike. I'm wondering if we have any of those double plays left. Much has been made about A-Rod "earning his pinstripes." Three hits including a home run. But the Yankees want a game winner here and now, and A-Rod delivers a double. And there's a pit in your stomach. Tie game, second and third, one out. Man, Nathan was over-extended. This is the problem when Romero can't get through an inning without giving up a run. Gardy goes with Nathan too long. He's up to fifty pitches. He won't be available on Friday. What about Saturday? Sheffield intentionally walked to fill the bases. Now, it's Godzilla's turn. But first, it's J.C. Romero. Romero throws one pitch. Godzilla hits a sacrifice fly, The Captain scores and the Twins let one get away. Wow, what a tough loss. The worst part is that we have to hear about "The Ghosts" of Yankee Stadium. What happened tonight was that Nathan was over-extended. That's all. |W|P|109710313777327572|W|P|Game 2 Ruminations|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/07/2004 02:22:00 AM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|what also happened is that Jones made an idiot decision to throw to first with Jeter, the no. one Yankee and most spirited player in baseball, obviously going to try for home.

throw home, he's out. new game. top 13th.10/07/2004 10:57:00 AM|W|P| SBG|W|P|I didn't see it. Was it clear that he was throwing at the cutoff guy or did he merely throw it short like he tends to do?10/07/2004 12:40:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|As you know, I didn't see the play. Did Jones throw it to the cutoff guy on purpose or did he just throw it too low, like he as a tendancy to do? If he deliberately threw to the cutoff guy, I can't explain that thinking. He had to throw home there.10/07/2004 02:54:00 PM|W|P| Ryan|W|P|Jones most definitely did not throw to first. There is no possible way he would do that, as every outfielder from little league on up knows that you have to throw home. Jones was playing in (like he was supposed to) and Matsui's fly ball was more of a line drive. Jones wasn't able to get any forward momentum going, and as a result he wasn't able to get as much distance on his throw as he would have liked. The throw was up the line and LeCroy HAD to cut it off. It just wasn't a great throw, that's all. Not an inexplicable throw to first.10/07/2004 02:57:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Thanks for the feedback, Ryan.10/05/2004 06:21:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P| 6:28 PM I've got too much to do to watch the game tonight. I've decided that I can take a break here and there to post a comment or two throughout the night. I'm very excited about the Twins, and as I posted below, I really think that they can win this series. You'll note that I never talked about whether the Yankees can win. Of course, they can win. They can always win. Curt Schilling gave the Red Sox a nice outing today and Boston routed the Anaheimers. I say "nice" because he gave up more than Santana probably can. He also pitched with a huge lead. Nice start for the Sox. Stan the Man called me today. That can only mean one thing. Yep. The Cardinals bolted out of the gate and won big. They got five home runs, including two from Larry Walker. Murderer's Row, indeed. 7:00 PM Who else wants to see Lew Ford playing left field and Shannon Stewart DHing tonight? I mean really. Forget that Ford is a better defensive outfielder, in fact, argue that Stewart is better. Hasn't Stewart been sitting out with a tight hamstring? Doesn't he have an ongoing issue with Plantar Fasciitis? I don't understand this. My friend Moss is very critical of Ron Gardenhire. He'd be more than okay if Gardy were shown the door. I'm not ready to say that, but if I were making out the lineup card tonight, Stewart would be the DH. I'm thinking Moss agrees. The oddsmakers have the Twins favored. Think of it. Game 1 of the playoffs. In Yankee Stadium. And the visiting team is favored. How often has that happened? 7:45 PM First inning. The Yanks get an infield hit and a walk. Uh-oh. Bernie Williams has a nine pitch at bat, but Johan Santana strikes him out and Henry Blanco gets A-Rod stealing third for a double play. I wonder if the NY fans are grumbling about A-Rod yet. Man, Blanco has been effective throwing out runners. 8:30 PM One of the great things about not watching the game on TV is missing out on Tim McCarver's incessant babbling. The next two games are on ESPN. I suppose that Joe Morgan will be calling those games. He's a good bit better than McCarver. He just overanalyzes everything. Oh, and he loves Derek Jeter. Through 3 1/2 innings, the Twins are up 1-0. Santana is allowing baserunners -- the Yankees had threats early and couldn't capitalize. Will Santana settle down and tighten up? Or will the Yanks break through? This is the key. 9:15 PM I've been wondering lately if the pain of losing his father to cancer has caused Jacque Jones' play to tail off. Jones has never been a good hitter against lefties. This year, his numbers have been down from last year against both lefties and righties. Obviously, the Twins have to make a decision on Jones at the end of the year. I've been of the mind that the Twins probably should let him go. When I heard of his personal family issues, I wondered how much has affected him -- are this year's an aberration due to the stress of losing his dad? I think anybody who's gone through the process of losing someone to cancer (or any other long term disease) knows how hard it really is. It's so good to see him knock one over the fence. And not just because it increased the Twins' lead to 2-0. 9:45 PM Here it is. The moment of truth. Man on second, two out, bottom of the seventh. 2-0 Twins. Santana is tiring and The Captain Derek Jeter is at the plate. Let's see if Jeter is "Mr. Clutch." Jeter is 1-3 with an infield single to this point. I'm glad it's Jeter here and not A-Rod. I want it to be Jeter and not A-Rod who fails here. I think A-Rod has gotten a "raw deal" from the media and fans. The guy is the best young (with apologies to Albert Pujols) player in the game. He's had to move from shortstop to third and listen to insinuations that he's not as good or as "clutch" as Jeter. That's hooey. Jeter is working Santana hard. 1-2. Yes! He grounds out to end the inning! Yipee! What a job of battling by Santana tonight. 9:52 PM Juan Rincon relieves Santana after Johan throws just 93 pitches. Wow. I haven't seen the game, so I don't know what he looks like, but it seems that Santana isn't exactly on top of his game (shutout not withstanding!). I'd really like Santana to still be in there. I don't know what Moss is thinking, but I guess Gardy doesn't want the Grady Little lable. I guess I trust Rincon, I just am not sure. He has been great this year. Wow! Another Double Play! That's FIVE in eight innings! 10:01 PM The Yanks go to Mariano Rivera in the ninth. This shows how Joe Torre uses his bullpen in the post season. He doesn't adhere to the thinking that you use your closer only in a save situation. He's gonna use Rivera as much as he needs to. I think that's pretty smart. I would imagine that Joe Nathan would pitch the ninth. Would Gardy use Nathan in this situation if the roles were reversed? Not a chance. I actually think this may be good for the Twins, however. They get a shot at Rivera without the game on the line. It'd be really nice if they could get to him. Instead, Rivera mows 'em down 1-2-3. To the bottom of the ninth! No Outs Bottom of the Ninth Jorge Posada is up first. Man he's a dangerous hitter. If you aren't thinking about the Yankees, you can forget how good this guy is. He's a career .270/.379/.475/.854 hitter, and he's a catcher. That's outstanding. But, he's out quickly and so is Hideki Matsui. Yes! Two Outs Bottom of the Ninth It's down to Ruben Sierra. That's a good guy for it to be down to. C'mon, Joe! Let's get him! Full count. Man, don't walk him. Yes! Game over! Twins WIN! Twins WIN! Twins WIN! Well, that's one game. You have to love that the Twins won the first game. They needed that game. I like that Santana battled, even though he gave up baserunners. I don't like that the Twins scored only two runs. In August, the Twins got to the Yanks. They need to score runs. But a win is a win. Ten more to go before the Twins are World Champions! |W|P|109701925168539770|W|P|Real Life Gets in the Way|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/06/2004 03:24:00 PM|W|P| Anonymous|W|P|Why didn't you watch the game?10/06/2004 03:26:00 PM|W|P| SBG|W|P|Just one of those things where I couldn't.10/04/2004 03:35:00 PM|W|P|SBG|W|P|My, how things have changed. A year ago, the Yankees were the prohibitive favorites in their ALDS matchup against the Twins. To almost no one's surprise, the Bronx Bombers manhandled Our Favorite Nine on their way to their 39th American League Pennant. This year, at least a couple of prognosticators are actually picking the Twins to send the Evil Empire packing and most of those that aren't see the Twins as a formidable challenge. What is the difference between this year and other Yankee teams? Well, for starters, this is not your older brother's Yankees team. This team doesn't have Paul O'Neill, a young Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez, and an earlier, much better, version of Derek Jeter. This team doesn't have Roger Clemens or Andy Pettitte or David Wells either. No, this Yankee team, this $180 million monument to George Steinbrenner's ego, is not the championship team of old. They have question marks. Sure, they have a tremendous amount of offensive talent: they scored 897 runs, second in the AL and 117 more than the Twins. But, the preseason predictions were that they'd score 1000 runs. And that pitching. With $73.1 million spent on pitching alone -- and that's after pawning Jose Contreras off on the White Sox -- you'd think that they'd be dominant on the hill (consider that the Twins entire payroll is just $53.5 million). You'd be wrong. The Yankees had a team ERA of 4.69, the worst by 0.41 of any team in the AL playoffs. Compare that to the Twins' team ERA of 4.03, the league's best (and the first time the Twins' have ever lead the AL in ERA). The Yankees will start Mike Mussina, legendary Twins-killer in game 1 and John Lieber in game 2. Mussina ended strong in September after an otherwise disappointing season (his ERA was 5.43 on August 31). Lieber has had a decent season, especially considering that he missed all of last season with an arm injury. He gives up a ton of hits, but he doesn't walk many. Lieber's been good, but he's not the guy that the Yankees would want to start game 2. The Twins will start Our Guy, who has been completely dominant (and he was pretty darned good against the Yanks last week, contrary to some reports) and My Personal Hero Brad Radke, who has been one of the best five pitchers in the American League this year. It's not hard to believe that a matchup between these teams includes the first two starters on one team that are clearly superior to the starters on the other team. The surprise is that it's the Twins' starters who are superior. Twins fans might be praying for Johan and Brad and weather that's bad. It's the Yanks, however, who have more questions. Do they pitch El Duque, who's been complaining of a sore shoulder? Do they go with Javier Vazquez, who had an ERA of 7.06 in the second half? How about Kevin Brown, still smarting from a broken (non-pitching) hand? True, the Twins don't have many answers beyond Carlos Silva, but three starters should be enough. The Yanks have a great closer in Mariano Rivera, and he's proven to be almost unhittable in the post-season (except of course for that one time, in the bottom of the ninth, in the seventh game of the World Series). The Twins have Joe Nathan, who has been every bit as good as Rivera, that is, he's been every bit as good as Rivera this year. The rest of each bullpen has questions as well as the end of each rotation (hello, J.C. Romero). However, the Twins bullpen is a little better with 3.94 ERA, compared to the Yankees' 4.45 ERA. When it comes to pitching, the Twins have a clear edge. If you want to talk offense, well, you must be a Yankees fan, or a pessimistic Twins fan. The Yankees hit the ball. Hard. Even though they fell way short of 1000 runs, they did hit a team record 242 home runs to tie for the AL lead. Five of the six Yankees who qualified for the batting title had an OPS of over .800 (only the aging Bernie Williams didn't). By comparison, the Twins hit "just" 191 home runs (their highest total in 17 years) and just two of their four players who qualified for the batting title had an OPS over .800. However, Corey Koskie, Shannon Stewart, and Justin Morneau also had OPS numbers over .800, and they'll be in the lineup everyday unless they are injured. The Twins have some good bats in their line up. But, they don't have Gary Sheffield or Hideki Matsui and they do have Cristian Guzman (.694 OPS), Henry Blanco (.628 OPS), and perhaps Luis Rivas (.715 OPS). Oh, and Guzman has a paltry .654 OPS against right handers. He may not face a single left-hander against the Yankees. Overall, the Yankees have a clear offensive advantage over the Twins. They are substantially better at catcher, third base, shortstop, and right field. They arguably more talented offensively at left field and second base. The Twins have an advantage in center field (Torii Hunter vs. Bernie Williams), DH (Lew Ford vs. whoever), and at first base (Li'l Harmon vs. John Olerud). We all know that the Yankees can score. What I like about the Twins' offense this year is that they are hitting the ball out of the park alot more than in the past. I mentioned the 191 homers. That's 36 more than last year. Even though they scored slightly fewer runs that last year, I like the fact that they are a better deep threat. Also, while all that righty pitching that the Yankees have may be hard on Guzman, I'm sure that Jacque Jones (.118 higher OPS against righties than lefties), Morneau (.228 higher), and Corey Koskie (.178 higher) won't mind. As for the head-to-head matchup between the two teams, the Yanks handled the Twins last week. I don't care. I think the Twins sent a message back in August that they weren't afraid of the Yankees in winning two of three and nearly pulling off an improbable win in the third game. The Twins had other priorities last week -- getting guys healthy, getting the pitching staff ready -- than winning. Sure, it would have been nice to win one or more of those games, but had Santana pitched 8 innings instead of 5, they would have won one. And had Radke pitched 7 innings instead of 5, they might have won two. And with Carlos Silva pitching the third game instead of Kyle Lohse, well you get the picture. I also think back to 1991, when the Twins were facing a Toronto Blue Jay team that owned them. The Twins lost four out of six games in the last two weeks of the season to the Blue Jays, had lost eight of twelve for the season, and nine of twelve the year before. The Twins even lost game 2 at home in the 1991 ALCS -- and then thumped the Blue Jays three straight on their way to the World Series crown. I mentioned August. Between July 30th and September 2nd, the Twins showed that they could play with anybody and everybody in the American League. August was by far the toughest month for the Twins schedulewise, and they acquitted themselves nicely. They took two of three from both Boston and New York, and they split six games with Anaheim. They beat back their closest rival at the time, Cleveland, by winning four of six. They took five of seven from Texas. Other than a lost week against Oakland and Seattle, the Twins were outstanding. During this stretch, the Twins showed that it isn't who they were playing, it is how they were playing that counts. If they play well in the post-season, they can compete. Having said all that, I think (and so does everybody else) it comes down to this for the Twins. If Santana and Radke are great, they can win. If they're not, well, hot stove league, here we come. It's easy to say that the Yanks are going to win on paper. It's hard (on my heart) to pick against the Twins. I can see a scenario where the Yanks manhandle the Twins and move on. I prefer not to look at that. In a 101 game series, I'm picking the Yankees to win. With all that money, they had better be able to beat the Twins based on sheer talent alone. But, it's a five game series. The Twins have the important pieces in place to be able to compete and win in a short series against anyone in the league. Sometimes, all the number crunching in the world is useless. Sometimes, the baseball gods have different plans. Sometimes, David beats Goliath. Like this year. I think that Santana and Radke will come up big. I think we'll see a series much closer to the series between these two teams in August than the one they just played. I think the Twins will win this series. |W|P|109692487852212085|W|P|Will Goliath Go Down?|W|P|sbg@stickandballguy.com10/05/2004 04:37:00 PM|W|P| Butch|W|P|Good job, enjoy your way of writing. Think that the tWINs will do ok.